NEARING THE TIME TO SHOVE IT IN...

...on Ned Lamont for junior Connecticut United States Senator. Kelso doesn't mean donations but that's cool, too. Lamont looks to be a very goot value bet. The very coarse reading of the latest poll, 55% Lieberman versus 40% Lamont with a 5% margin of error suggests Lieberman as a 3-position (standard deviation) favorite in the Democratic primary but all of the other factors say Lamont. With no contributions on hand, he won a third of the vote in the caucus. He has improved his poll standing from 65%/15% to the present figure. He can self-finance at any point. Lieberman's most critical ally, Charles Schumer, is holding his tongue, and Howard Dean's silence is deafening. You know he's been waiting to separate Lieberman from his balls (K shamelessly borrowing that one from Dale Peck) and Dean will have his chance velly, velly soon. The semiotics are perfect. Please look at yesterday's Tissue Of Lies. You'll see Lieberman ugly as ever and scared to death on the front page, and Lamont the extra-chill shaygitz with his attractive blond wife in full color in the B section. [NB: Kelso PURRR-OMISES that he, Kelso, is not a self-hating Jew; the opposite captures reality more accurately!]

Democrats seem to be scared that Lieberman's promised "Independent Democratic" run will split the Democratic vote and allow the nobody Republican to win. Maybe...but a nobody with no money can't win, even in a three-way. Besides, if there's any hint of problem from the Republican side, Lamont's secret weapon, Lowell Weicker (Republican), will sort it out.

So, out-moneyed, out-idead-ed, and out-ccoled, Lieberman's only hope may be back-door RNC help which will only hurt. That said, you would still have to make Lieberman the favorite to win the Democratic primary, on the order of say 7/2-on or 78%, just not 3-positions-on or 99%. If Lamont wins the primary, HE would be on the order of a 4/1-on (80%) favorite to win the seat. So, fair value (78% X 20%) on Lamont would be 11/2-against pre-primary, and anything significantly better in the market makes Lamont a bet today. Should he get through the primary, there will probably be no price in the market that wouldn't make Lamont a good bet.

[A little late editing. Glad no one pointed out Kelso's hideous math. Calculation should be 22% x 80% pre-primary or 9/2-against! Pardon the vapor lock. At least Kelso won't fall back on the Willie Randolph excuse "uhh...uhhh...it all happened so fast..."]

Best source to express this opinion will probably be a Curocovian place whose name means "apex" was featured in a Sopranos episode (hospital, Hal Holbrook, boxing match, rap producer) of this season. Kelso surely does not want to be thought of as someone who promotes gambling!

Should it all go ass-over-tea-kettle on August 6th, we can take comfort in the fact that uber-free-marketeer Lieberman will go to his grave with less than 5% of the net worth of the dovish Lamont. And Lamont has NEVER had to do anything as repulsive as drafting language protecting drug and insurance companies from Thimerosol suits or supporting Bush's endless wars. The guy just went out there and made some money and good for him.

Now, a brief, semi-contrary opinion about The Sopranos. It is and has been excellent television to be sure, but as the Junior Gotti testimony and interviews have made plain: THERE IS NOTHING GLAMOROUS ABOUT BEING A GANGSTER. Full-stop. It is a depressing and hateful life. Kelso takes Mr. Gotti at his word -- being psychologically bulldozed by his father away from college and sports and into all sorts of ill shit was rank child-abuse and nothing more than that. No, The Sopranos is hardly the worst cultural offender on this score -- how about all rap since 1996 other than Eminem and The Coup? -- but the show has veered in that direction more often than not. This is a quibble not a slam, but Kelso has to say it, anyway.

This parents-and-children business is important to Kelso because Kelso Sr and Kelso mere have been rocks through the various troubles of Kelso and Kelso La Hermana. We've been lucky; that's all. As Kelso Jr begins to face the first troubles of his own brief existence, Kelso will try his best to be as strong. Father-and-son sushi dinner, wiffle-ball in the house, and a hard beating by Cleveland on the Juliettes make it easy.

Kelso's Nuts love you.