WELL, THAT'S NO DAMNED GOOD...

...Sarkozy put an 6-n-change beating on Royal in the French election with 85% turnout. Would someone who has a really strong knowledge about the mechanics of elections explain to Kelso how the liberal loses with an 85% turnout? In France! Against a guy who campaigned on two issues: making France more like America with regard to work and benefits and an anti-immigration platform far to the right of the crap that comes out of Lou Dobbs's mouth! In the betting, Sarkozy closed at around -275/+255 which impounds a 73% probability of winning and is commensurate with a win of around the size of Clinton's win over Dole. Not real sure, but Clinton's share was smaller than 54+, yes or no?

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1618019,00.html

Of course in the split system of the French republic, Sarkozy still has to await the parliamentary elections to seal up this win, but there hasn't really been any talk of a mass defecition to the Socialist in the months upcoming. We didn't really follow this one except for the occasional glance at Pinnacle's odds and a Reuters wire story or two, but there was some talk about Royal being the "centrist" alternative in supposedly the mold of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton, and that she wasn't real, real clear on where she stood on anything and nothing special on the stump. But let's get real here. 85% of the vote brings practically every blue-collar worker and every immigrant with the franchise into the voting booth. How does she possibly lose this one? It wasn't LePen's influence. He had urged his supporters to stay home which they clearly didn't do. They probably did the opposite and gave Sarkozy the win. Yet, some are going to vote for Royal because...just because. And some are going to heed LePen and stay home. So, maybe with 78% turnout ex-LePen support for Sarkozy, Royal can only break even?

The French vote suggests that clarity was more important than ideology, so, Mme Senator Clinton, you may have some problems here. Or pick some views and stick with them. Clinton, however, has an edge that Royal did not have; none of her likely opponents -- Giuliani, McCain, Romney or Thompson -- have any clarity either. This is borne out by Clinton's narrow favoritism at 11/4 outright for the presidency, with Giulani at 3/1. She could continue to do her number and win. If Gore, however, comes in with a peace, justice and environment message and doesn't waver off it, he could make a joke out the race.

If Edwards could get some money, he'd have no worse a chance than Clinton does of winning it. Gore is a special case and the Edwards scenario would require every drop of Howard Dean's help. It's clear that Dean would prefer Gore over all of them, but no one really knows how Dean and Edwards got along during the 2004 primary season. It seems clear that Dean would love to bury the Clintons but does he have a close enough relationship with Edwards to go for it if Gore fails to show up? Might Dean do the silly thing and help Obama? The former scenario seems more likely. Dean certainly had a lot of problems with Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman, but there didn't seem to be any bad blood between him and Edwards. Dean is also smart enough to realize that Obama raised a lot of money himself and like as not both Obama and Clinton might replace Dean with Harold Ford, Jr., as Carville has suggested they should. Edwards would keep Dean in place and probably flick away the likes of Carville. But that's Edwards's only chance because he can't seem to get any money on his own.

DUDES

Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. Of course.

DWEEB

Good Ol' W. "Commander Guy."

On to yesterday's other news story: Roger Clemens signs with Rudy Giuliani's Girls for $28 million to pitch in 2007 for them. ESPN Espanol had the tape of Clemens addressing the crowd at the Stadium and it sure didn't sound to Kelso like he'd be pitching any time soon. So, let's say he's good to go sometime in June. That pretty much puts the Girls where the Mets are if the Mets had a bad bullpen and hadn't gotten off to a great start. The Girls will find themselves with bags and bags of hitting, one bona fide superstar starter for a half a season, rags for the remainder of the starting pitching and the only blue chip, Phil Hughes, hurt. They are going to be life and death to make that wild card. The AL Central any two of Cleveland, Detroit or Minnesota will be a hurdle for the Girls, with the other one winning the division. Oakland or LAAOA are both live, and somehow Tampa Bay is making us feel like they are about to explode on the league. The Girls could backdoor it somehow, and they'll need Clemens to do it, but Clemens alone won't make it happen.

Kelso's Nuts love you.