Saturday, January 21, 2006

JUST POLITICAL TIDBITS, MOSTLY POKER TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

Like just about everyone, Kelso is of two minds on this Al Gore speech business. Of course, it was the truth and it was tough and it was delivered with passion. It needed to be said by a public figure with some political bona fides and perhaps puts Al back into consideration for '08. It really was, though, too little, too late. If Al Gore wanted to fight George Bush, the time to have done it was starting sometime in July of 2000. He should have take ANYBODY but Joe Lieberman as his running mate. It wouldn't surprise Kelso is Lieberman had been a Bush spy throughout the whole thing. Mr. Acne was certainly velly, velly quiet during Novemeber and December and pretty much used his debate time with Cheney to present his thoughts on what an excellent VP Cheney would make. For his part, Gore did a bit of the same in one of the debates with Bush, agreeing with him something on the order of 30-40 times. There is an official count of this. Google will have it. Gore should have been fused to Bill Clinton at the shoulder throughout the campaign.

But those were strategic and tactical errors by Bob Shrum, because Bob Shrum knows how to run only one kind of campaign: Accomodationist, hope to get as much of the middle as possible, disregard white men -- that sounds paradoxical, Kelso understands, but if you are a regular here you'll dig -- and hope the poor are stupid enough to go along.

And then when it was time, Gore blinked. History rarely calls to people. When the Fraternity Nazis were storming the Florida Board Of Elections offices, it was time for Gore to get Donna Brazile to round up an equal number of the toughest 'hood guys she could find and stop that particular crap in its tracks.

History calls to very few people. When the Supreme Court made its worst ruling since Plessy V Ferguson, effectively permitting the Republican Congress NOW to write any Bill Of Attainder they like for President Pretzel, history was screaming to Al. Had he fought tooth and nail and by any means necessary to secure the presidency that was rightfully his, he would have gone down as one of the all-time greats: Lincoln, Mandela, King, Yeltsin, DeKlerk, Ghandi.

It has been argued that Gore was only in that position because of his father, because this was what was expected of him, a gray, moderate functionary. So, where were the balls going to come from? Well, the VERY same could have been said of both Yeltsin and DeKlerk; they were STARS in their respective ruling parties, and also both heavily groomed for the comfortable positions they held before taking a stand.

It is sad for Al Gore. And sad for America.

As for one of the other major players of that earlier time, Senator Hillary Clinton, Kelso sez "good for you." The "plantation speech" ran completely counter to the playbook, but it finally showed you had some fight in you. We all know you can counterpunch with the best, but it's nice to see some aggression, too. One piece of Kelso advice: DON'T LET BOB SHRUM OR THE DLC RUN YOUR CAMPAIGN. And for God's Sakes, don't read or listen to anything from the Tissue Of Lies or Woodward/Gannon Post about how great it is that you've "moderated your message." It's not great. It's repulsive.

But as we all know, the politicians are irrelvant. The people have to show some leadership, and from the 18th century forward and certainly in many cases before that, the revolutions that work come from the middle-class. Kelso has already suggested two peaceful ideas: A Boston Tea Party '2006, and a stay-at-home-with-the family day.

Sign off and poker.

Kelso's Nuts love you.

SOUTHERN MAN:
Here is the hand by hand recap. I felt a little nervous driving over to the Gold Strike today. I guess partly because it has been a few months since I played a Championship Event. A little nerves are usually a good thing for me. It shows that I care a great deal about my preformance. Historically I have done my best in competition when I am a little amped up. This goes all the way back to my Bowling days. We started with 20k in chips, 90 minute levels, and opening blinds of 50-100. We will be playing 5 levels each of the first two days. I folded the first 7 hands and then picked up KK. I was in 2nd position and the player to my right limped. I raised to 500 and he called. My early impression of him: Armenian player who seemed very competent. Flop 2d3s6s. He checked I bet 500, He called. Turn Qh He checked. I ran through the possible hands. He could have a set, A draw, AQ. If I check the turn I prevent losing a big pot but I hate to give a free card with that kind of board. I bet 1000. He made it 2500. I called as he could have a draw or AQ and think its good. River 2d. He bet 3500 and I paid him off. He showed 66 for top set flopped. He played it perfectly. That is one of the difficult things that you encounter in tournaments when you start with lots of chips. It is hard to price people off of out-flopping your big pairs. I almost prefer to start with a hand like his, because you either lose a little or win a lot. So early I am down to 13k. I stay composed. There is plenty of play left with the blinds still small. I start to get a line on my table. Seat 1 is a very very tight asian lady. Seat two also seems tight. Seat 3 is David Levi an accomplished player. He played a lot tighter than I thought he would. Seat 4 is a young kid 22? He turns out to be an execllent player. Seat 5 is 45 years old kinda tight. Seat 6 is an Asian Player who won the 1500 NLH event. He proves to be a consistent bluffer and the softest spot. Seat 7 is the Armenian player who plays well on the tight side. Seat 8 is me. Seat 9 is a complainer who gives off a few tells and likes to defend his blinds. Seat 10 is tight. I start to raise a fair amount. My plan is to isolate the Asian Guy and let him bluff his chips to me before he loses them elsewhere. In doing this I get a loose image, and people start coldcalling me at the 100-200 2nd level. Level 3 100-200 25 ante.I Have an AQ and raise to 600 the Asian guy calls. Flop AJT. He checks I bet 1200 he calls. Turn Q. He checks and I check to keep from having to call a big raise if he has a Jack. Also, to induce his usual bluff. For some reason, all day he would bet 2k on the end, get called and show a bluff. Most people would stop after the 2nd or 3rd time, but he never does. River 8 and he bets 2k. I call and he shows A7. Back to 16k. The Asian guy gets lucky and wins a big pot with AQ vs the tight lady's KK. Then he loses a huge pot with KdTd vs QQ and flop of AdQd6. He is ready to leave but the dealer tells him he has 4k left. It is his big blind and I raise with KT to isolate. I get one caller and him. Flop T73. I bet and the other player goes out. Asian guy goes allin and I have an easy call. He shows 47 and I am back to 20k. I get caught stealing a few times. I have 33 on the button and call seat 5's raise. Flop AdTd6d. He checked the flop and turn and I bet both times. He called and bet 4k on the river and I mucked. I have QQ in big blind and tight lady in seat one makes it 1k having only 6k total. The new player cold called the 1k on the button. He seemed solid. I raised to 6k and the Lady called all-in and the oter one folded. I thought she would have TT or JJ. She showed AK and its off to the races. I flopped a Q and was up to 24k. Blinds now 200-400 50 ante. Erick Lindgren replaced her and he had a big stack of 35k. Erick is tough to have on your left. He plays kinda loose and agressively but has a couple gears and puts a lot of pressure on you with his excellent hand reading skills. I knew it would be tough but I tried to look at the positives. I would watch him closely and see what I could learn, along with trying to outplay him. I had 78d and raised to 1200. Erick called from the small blind. Flop 9h7h5d. He checked, I bet 1500, he called. Turn Kh. He checked I checked. He bet 2500 when a K came on the river. His bet seemed to want a call as it was only 1/3 of the pot. I felt like he had me and mucked. I had AA on the button and thought about flat calling a raise but I reraised and won with no flop. Soon after Erick got in a huge pot with the good young player in seat 4 who had amassed 50k by good play and catching cards. He had K7s in the big blind and seat 4 had JJ and raised. Flop 7d7hTd. Erick checked, seat 4 bet. Erick checkraised. Seat 4 called. Turn Js. Check Check. River Kd. Erick bet 8k and after a long pause seat 4 went all-in. Erick took a while and you could tell he had a big hand but a tough fold. He called and was knocked out. I now went through a cold stretch. Every time I raised I was reraised or checkraised on the flop. Between that and the blinds I was down to 13k. I got Ad6c on the button and all fold to me. I raised knowing the Small Blind would call me. I made it 1200. He called. Flop 6h3c3d. He bet 1500. He had about 9k to my 13k. I really put him on two picture cards as I thought with a better hand he would have reraised. I thought about a big raise, but I figured I could get more information on the turn, as I thought he would bet big or check. Turn was 2c. He bet 3k. I took a long time to decide. I decided to call but was unsure. River looked ugly 5c. He moved in almost before the card was on the felt. I asked for a count. It was 4600 more. The odds were between 3-1 and 4-1. He was walking around and told his buddies it looked like he was out. I was leaning towards calling but a loss would put me at 4k. I had the clock called on me ( one minute to act ) and He said to me quietly, I'll show you the hand. That cinched it, I called. He mucked. I think he had JQ. I was back to 22k. The other players complimented me on the call. Blinds went to 300-600 75 ante. I tried to force the action a little and was reraised a couple times and had to fold. I think I may have done too much ante stealing today. The structure favors it but I was getting played with. Of course I was set up to pick up hands and get a lot of chips. I decided with only 40 minutes left in the day and a tough table. I'd take my 17k and play tighter the rest of the day. Hopefully I'd get a better lineup and a more positive image and outlook tomorrow. I folded a while and then raised with Ad9d one off the button to 2200. A new player went allin in the small blind and I was getting 3-1 from the pot and must call. He had AJ and I was down to 13k. I got AK a while later and Raised to 1800 from early position. Seat 4 called and the small blind called. Flop AQ6. I bet 3500 and they both folded. That was a nice pickup and I was back to 17k. I raised with TT one round later and won the blinds staying at 17k. We had an announcment of only 6 hands left. I raised with KQ with 2 hands left as most players seemed ready to be done. I won the blinds. I ended the day with 17300 and complimented my opponents on their excellent play. This was a very tough day for me. I could never get in a groove. I seem to play really well against easy competition and have a lot touger time with good players. While that is only logical, it is something I plan on working to improve. I am proud of the way I perservered and made it to Day 2 with a working stack of 17,300 and blinds starting at 400-800 ante 100. I will be able to get my table assignment shortly for tomorrow. I will look up my opponents results online and try to get a solid scouting report. Hopefully I can formulate a game plan that will give me a headstart on my opponents. I'd enjoy any feedback you have.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh, the Gore... I think he missed the boat. (I responded to you below in the other box, and thank you for your support, dialogue, etc. at LTN)

KELSO'S NUTS said...

Lily:

You are too, too kind. He didn't "miss the boat". That implies that there will be the next boat :)

AL GORE MISSED THE CHANCE TO BE A MAJOR HISTORICAL FIGURE. The kind of name that will be heroic to around 25 billion people in 4 generations. And for what? So, THE TISSUE OF LIES and THE WOODWARD/GUCKERT POST would write nice things about how gentlemanly he was.

Preview: Make Super Sunday very close to pick 'em, Seattle -0.71 to be precise, so it looks like a small play on the Seahawks.

Keep up the good work on LTN.

How did you discover Kelso's Nuts, btw?