Prop.note: As usual I put all guest posts up unedited and unseen. My first reading will be your. This one's from "Gary's Boner". I take no credit for his brilliance nor blame for his errors. Enjoy.
Kelso's Nuts love you
My old friend Kelso has asked for guest posts, so I decided to expand a comment I posted a week ago that took off from Johnny Depp’s performance in Sweeney Todd. Depp had the challenge of taking on one of the great singing roles of the American musical theater with little more than the ability to carry a tune, and somehow carried it off superbly and is being feted for it. He did it by simply copying David Bowie’s Ziggy Stardust-era style, intonation and accent. By the way, so total is Depp’s impersonation that he was embarrassed even to credit Bowie in the Rolling Stone interview where he explained how he became such a good singer so fast.
This got me thinking that since pop is mostly phrasing and rhythm, anyone who croons half-decently can be a very good pop singer by merely choosing someone who is great, studying his or her voice carefully, and copying it. Remember how surprisingly good Eddie Murphy was when imitating Stevie Wonder, or Joe Piscopo and many others as Frank Sinatra? Rock vocalists especially depend on predecessors, and even the great rock “originals” – Jagger, Lennon, Dylan, etc. – were copying. Thus all rock traces back either to (i) a black slave singing on a porch, (ii) a Renaissance minstrel doing Greensleeves, or (iii) some Irish people fiddling while dancing a reel. Even when the influences are obscure, they’re still there. As Rupaul once pointed out on her show, half the singers at that time in the ‘90’s – e.g., Eddie Vedder, Hootie – were just doing Cher. “Girl,” Rupaul said, “they was all ripping you off.”
But what’s wrong with copying, anyway? There are maybe one or two Van Gogh-esque originals in every field per generation, and mostly they are considered weirdos in their lifetimes. For the rest of us lacking the divine spark of genius, we are fortunate indeed if we can appreciate those who have it and flatter them by imitation. There are thousands of Warren Buffett wannabes but only one Sage of Omaha, and he still beats the pants off his imitators, even in his 80’s. (Oh and by the way, until the recent ascent of behavioral economics, Buffett was considered just a lucky guy by most finance experts. Even Kelso once opined to me that Buffett was basically a lottery winner, back in the day when your man was into efficient markets. ) Though they may not achieve Buffett-like results, the more assiduous acolytes achieve market-beating returns, is my bet. (Much statistical evidence finds value investing beating growth.)
Now let’s discuss one of the great politicians of our time, Bill Clinton. I would argue that although he modeled himself (or pretended to) on predecessors like JFK, in fact he was an original, combining his emotional intelligence with a vague centrist philosophy that could be interpreted as all things to all people. (As a president I rate him mediocre, but right now I’m talking about his political skills.) Remember during the 1992 campaign, when Slick Willie said that abortions should be “safe, legal, and” – dramatic eye-pop to show he is going to surprise you – “RAYRE.” Who could argue with that position, the people who thought it should be expensive and dangerous? Or those who have a yen for plentiful abortions? (Actually Kelso on this site has argued in favor of the latter, and I admire his consistency for it.)
Now let’s look at the current campaign and ask, who is copying Clinton perfectly? Not HRC, but her opponent, whose deliberately vague and platitudinous speeches leave us feeling inspired but slightly befuddled, as if he had fed us three cocktails and a steak and then left us at the curb to hail a taxi home. What a delicious irony that HRC is losing to the guy who has studied her man’s playbook and is using it masterfully! This also helps us understand why Bill seems to find Barack so infuriating, sort of like when Alan King first saw Jay Leno perform and thought, “Hey, this kid’s stealing my act!”
I would like to end this post with a sermon, because it’s not only a holiday – actually one of my favorites, because it celebrates something based in reality and not superstition – but also my birthday and I’m in the Caribbean, I’ve had a rum-and-tonic, and I’m feeling warm inside. Each of us has known people we admired for different reasons – some were great parents, some charitable souls, others successful entrepreneurs or brilliant scholars – and what we should do to have a happy life is emulate those who have impressed us in areas of importance. Some are lucky to have grown up in families full of people with admirable qualities, and could start learning at an early age. Some found our role models in school, or at our first jobs. The trick is always to be looking around for inspiration, and when you find it, ask what the person is doing to be producing such wonderful results. Then just do a Johnny Depp on him or her, and your own success will be almost guaranteed.
Happy Presidents’ Day!
Saturday, February 16, 2008
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41 comments:
G'sB: Noyce! A tasty little essay-in-box. Perfectly constructed. Stylishly written. Point made.
I am reminded, however, of a story I heard from a bookmaker in Brooklyn. He had gotten into an argument with a college-educated Manhattan-based client over the week's figure. The two of them couldn't seem to reconcile it and finally the educated guy says to the BM, also named "Gary", actually, "I think you're being very CAVALIER." Eventually they agreed on a figure, but "Gary" told me how pissed off he had been at the client. He said to me "I didn't know what the fuck he meant by 'cavalier.' So, I got down my dictionary and looked the word up and I was like 'what the fuck, this guy's INSULTING me!"
So, please let me correct the record somewhat. While I absolutely opined that I THOUGHT Buffett was a lottery winner, I couldn't prove it. I can prove that if you take a population as large as the world of equity investors you WILL with 99% certainty observe SOMEONE with Buffett's results. I also believe that once someone has reached a critical mass of wealth and influence, he will be able to get all sorts of inside information henceforth and moreover can do the vulture thing on scandal-ridden but under-valued assets such as Salomon Brothers 1990 and Long-Term Capital Management 1998.
I still believe in Eugene Fama's "efficient market hypothesis," as I always have, albeit in it's "semi-strong form," meaning that asset prices reflect all past price information and all public information. That does not prevent Buffett from hearing anything over the bridge table or on the golf course. Not that he would act on anything like that. Not hardly. He's a saint.
Nobody should take away from Gary'sBoner's post that I believe in the "strong-form" of Fama's Efficient Markets Hypothesis which holds that asset values contain all past price information, all public information AND all PRIVATE INFORMATION.
I do accept, however, Gary's contention that value investing is superior to grwoth investing but the superiority is reflected in the higher ratio of Expected[Value]/Volatility impounded in the value investment as compared with its growth cousin. That is not inconsistent with my belief that any random "value" investment could merely be an "efficient" or "break-even" play if repeated 10,000,000 times or so. With a gun to my head, I would always pick a value play over a growth play and I'd also let John Meriwether make one play for me instead of Warren Buffett with my life on the line. By that's just me. I like Hydrox. Gary'sBoner likes Oreos.
Gary'sBoner is half right about my view of abortion. I don't have any sort of "yen" for abortions! That would be the viewpoint of such ethnic-cleansing advocates as Bill Bennett and Stephen Leavitt. I believe that Roe v Wade is a good standard and that abortion should be a right not a privilege and should be included in any health insurance plan whether singly-payer, corporate or blended. That's right -- "free." It's not that I think "safe, legal and RAYRE" is a bad idea. I'm merely indifferent to the "Rayre" part of it.
I like a laugh, but I'm not sick in the head. Moreover, as a man, it's not my choice.
Obama is to be credited for not making promises he can't keep, but is to be faulted for OFFERING NO OPINIONS.
Besides, I think Green Day does a fine imitation of The Buzzcocks and Gang Of Four. Big Star did a fine imitation of Leonard Cohen. Your culture reference, G'sB, are spot-on.
Go on, my son!
GREAT post G'Boner !!
And I agree with much of what Kelso says about efficient markets and Eugene Fama. I'm a fan of Markowitz as well. Technical analysis is such a scam --- it certainly sells a lot of (useless) books (and software) though !!!
Very good point about the Obama / Clinton nexxus. Maureen Dowd had an interesting article in 'The Tissue of Lies' (aka NYT) last week where she likened Hillary's situation to one where, early in her career, she was dealing with a much stronger political animal than she, the political equivalent to Secretariat ... and then, lo and behold, when it's "her turn" The Son of Secretariat so cruelly sideblinds her. It's kind of sad for her, really. On a number of levels. But there you have it.
Another point on the "you can't govern on soaring rhetoric" issue. I heard someone say yesterday that David Axelroad (Obama's campaign manager) also ran the campaign for Patric Deval, the current (African American) governor of Massachusetts. He as well won (partially) with some admirably warm and fuzzy rhetoric, but when he got into office it became clear to the voters that "the beef" wasn't quite there. He subsequently turned things around. But there are those who believe that that is one of the reasons Hillary won Massachusetts, despite the Kennedy endorsement. It was kind of a "been there done that" situation and they (the people of Massachusetts) were hip to the nature of Obama's rhetorical stylings, i.e., that they may just be that: stylings, not much more.
I agree with you as well on the "copying" issue. All great art ... be in music, literature or the fine arts, is part of a continuum. There are those who use the ... "oh, Dylan's not great because he was just copying Guthrie" arguement. And then you've got the old "Springsteen's not great because he's just copying Dylan." My personal opinion is that 1) Dylan IS great because he didn't just "copy" Guthrie, he learned from him and incorporated him into the plethora of other sources of inspiration he had received (including numerous other great poets, ministrels, and vagabonds throughout history) and greated something uniquely his own. Dylan, to me, is one of the finest poets of the 20th century. Just my opinion.
Springsteen, on the other hand, is NOT great simply because he copied and did not create all that much beyond that. Even Pete Seeger got pissed off at his "Seeger Sessions" works. I'm sure I'm offending a few Springsteen fans here, but, as I've learned to do from my friend Kelso, I call them as I sees them.
Wow, your post was full of all kinds of stuff I could keep going on and on. But I'll stop for now.
Kelso: "Soft efficient markets theory" then basically says that the reason Pets.com was "wprth" $1 billion in 2/00 and $0 by 6/00 is that "information" (private or public) emerged about its prospects in the interim? Ka-ching, no sale, as you once said to Dani's friend Greg when he stated that Warren Beatty looked young because of clean living alone. The weight of evidence on behavioral economics and its application to finance is now so ponderous that the few academics still claiming markets are efficient seem like hurricane victims desperately trying to cover their nakedness with leaves and fronds. I actually believe stock markets got kind of efficient in the mid-90s because of internet traders, but now have become horribly inefficient again because most trading is done by prop desks and hedge funds, who are subject to various short term pressures unrelated to fundamentals. And Warren Buffett outperforms because of inside information and market power? I don't think so.
Anita: thanks for your kind words. Technical analysis does work in my opinion, up to a point. First, the charts can actually signal private information coming into stock prices. Second, behavioral finance shows that people get "anchored" in certain stock levels, leading to technical patterns such as double tops, etc. I recommend the book "Behavioral Finance" by james Montier.
As for Dylan vs. Springsteen, I rate them much more even than you do. Much of Dylan's "poetry" just sounds cool with its references to "Napoleon in rags" and so forth. Springsteen's early lyrics were warmed over Dylan, but around the time of "Darkness" he put forth his own vision, which was fairly unique. Take a re-listen to "Darkness" side 2, with "Factory," and "Racing in the Streets" and tell me who Bruce was copying. Listen to "Tunnel of Love" for God's sake! Musically Springsteen has at least as much originality as Dylan, most of whose tunes apparently come from old folk songs. That said, I love them both.
I got to leave more often. It's very RAYRE to get two of the really serious polymaths, Gary'sBoner and Anita, into it on the same thread.
If I had NO OPINION on a subject, I would feel very comfortable just asking EITHER Gary'sBoner or AXN their opinion and parroting it.
But..."wait a second, this guy's insulting me AGAIN!"
Fama doesn't say that asset prices have "predictive" value. He says that "THEY DON'T." So, forget about pets.com.
I am glad you brought this up, though, because it leads me back to Fama, to Anita, to the point of your original post, and to technical and behavioral analysis.
Looking at pets.com at let's say three months past its IPO you could have taken three approaches: (1) THE TECHNICAL ANALYST. You would have been buying and buying and buying as it kept making new tops and then you would have gotten buried, unless "behavioral" concerns got you off early enough or got you off of enough to book a profit and switch to short when the cascade came (2) THE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYST. You would have been shorting and shorting and shorting for your nuts and as Keynes said the market can be "wrong" way longer than you can maintain your bankroll. So, you would have lost your shirt covering and covering and covering UNLESS "behavioral" factors got you out with a small loss early or your bankroll was deep enough to get well when the end came. (3) THE FAMA-IST. You sit the whole thing out knowing that there's too much randomness in something like pets.com, too much volatility, and too much INFORMATION YOU DON'T KNOW. No behaviorial or bankroll concern caveats necessary.
Fama's work was derivative of Ricardo and Keynes on the economic side, Fisher and Markowitz on the financial side. Yet, it was groundbreaking and still has valence. You can make a straw man out of straw if you want. Nobody's arguing the strong-form of Fama, but the average human mind isn't strong enough on average to overcome what Fama presents in weak and semi-strong form nor what Markowitz presented in portfolio theory: more gain requires more risk -- the winners live to tell their tale. The losers? Not so much, even thought the "losers" might have been "right."
And, um, Gary'sBoner, when did I ever say I disrespected Behavioral Finance? I have been a champion of Thaler for a long time, and I've ordered Montier from Gran Morrison down here.
Technical analysis? I'm with Anita on this one. It's another coin-flipping question. The winners live to tell their tales, but the technical analyst at best is fading a coin weighted about 2% against him.
That said, Gary'sBoner, I think there is an application of both behavioral finance and technical analysis. When you have a situatin in which ALL of the technical analysts agree on a play, you want to be slightly long short term with a bigger put option further out. In other words, you want to profit a little from any bullshit hype immediately but have a big a priori play FADING that hype.
I never slammed value investing, either. I think the bigger your tool-kit the better off you are but grounding in something mathematically sound, which technical analysis is not, gives you discipline.
I agree with both of you on the music. Nobody (except Townes Van Zandt who was insane) could say that Dylan was not a breakthrough artist in his own right. He has a bit of a Hillary Clinton problem, though. He was so prolific you can always find silly stuff of his to make fun of. Springsteen was doing something of a weak Dylan early career but that didn't stop him from making great music as the first three albums show positively. "Does This Bus Stop...?" is warmed-over Dylan but it's still a great song, no?
And I super-agree with Gary's Boner about Darkness On The Edge Of Town. Jeezie-Peezie, Anita. When your brother-in-law drove me down Kingsley, I really had CHILLS!
G'Boner, we're just going to have to agree to disagree on the Dylan versus Springsteen controversy.
But don't get me wrong, I have been, and remain, a long-time fan of Springsteen. I grew up on the Jersey Shore in the '60's and '70's (hmmm ... to be more specific ... Exits 105 thru 98 on the GSP) so how can all of Sprinsteen NOT have gotten extremely thorough listens by me on vinyl and in person, and how can Springsteen NOT have been part of the backdrop of much of my young (and young adult) life. My own personal favorite is Nebraska.
I don't deny that he is a great writer and a FANTASTIC rock and roller.
However, and that being said, Dylan's overall body of work is far more substantial, far more wide-ranging and, yes, I feel that much of his work does in fact transcend from songwriting into fine contemporary poetry where Springteen's work can be seen, in my opinion, primarily in terms of it being fine songwriting. And there ain't nothing wrong with that.
I think you would get some very important insight into the complex and musically diverse personality that is Bob Dylan if you listen to his "Theme Time Radio" on XM. You will see how deeply he has dug into musical and poetic history, something that I believe sets him above and apart from someone like Springsteen. On a purely intellectual basis that is.
Dylan is a renaissance man in more ways than one.
And I'm thinking perhaps there is a generational divide that prevents people from digging more seriously into Dylan. He's seen as part of that generation that Obama is trying to separate himself from in his quest to get "the youth vote."
What a great post, and stimulating commentary afterward. There was recently a piece in Slate that references an analysis, done by a professor of rhetoric, of Obama's 2004 convention speech that started his media honeymoon. Good stuff.
Anita: I agree with you 1000% about Theme Time. It's amazing to me, the breadth of Dylan's cultural knowledge. He even played the "more cowbell" snl sketch. Short but great Dylan story -- when he heard the Kurt Cobain song "Polly" he said "This kid's got heart." I think Irving Berlin once said the same thing about Sammy Cahn or something.
Kelso: a question, and I'm not being flippant, I really want to know, because I didn't get an MBA and learned everything I know on the streets: what is the difference between volatility and risk?
On Bruce. He is not only a great artist, but one of those admirable people I was talking about. He does a lot of charity stuff anonymously, and he's good to his mother and his family.
Obama is roughly our ages, G'sB and AXN, and unlike us was a total frat-boy with shitty musical taste. I make it a fucking likely that all three of us were listening to Afrika Bambataa, GMF, Run-DMC, and Slick Rick before Obama was. And I make it s stone-cold lock that his college spending money was 10x the 3 of ours combined.
Obama was a Quarterflash and Grover Washington, Jr., fan TO BE SURE!
G'sB: I got yer "streets" right here!
volalitility = risk, usually measured by standard deviation or variance which is sd^2.
My view: volatility is not the same as risk. I'm not capable of making the argument against you, but when you get Montier you will find it in there, all wrapped up nice with stats like you like it. After reading that part I would like to see you rebut.
I've said it before -- you'll know a good president has come when his inaugural entertainment is something you'd actually like to see yourself. What kind of demented show would McCain have? Tony Bennett feeding on the corpse of Rosemary Clooney, or what?
Does he make the argument that neither the s-test nor t-test apply because a "bull market" is volatile in a good way? I've seen that argument and it does make mathematical sense using "F".
Actually, it will be faster and cheaper if you buy me a copy of Montier tomorrow and toss it in a Fedex to me.
If his argument is mathematically sound and different from the F-test, I can't wait to read it.
In terms of options-pricing though, the DIRECTION of the asset is irrelevant to the price of the option given that the rate of interest and time to expiration are determinisitic.
Music at inauguration? McCain HAS to go the Country and Western route with Hootie And The Blowfish and Kevin Federline thrown in. Finale by Kid Rock.
Obama: All smooth jazz, R&B, and gospel. George Benson and Grover Washington, Jr. Wynton Marsalis and Herbie Hancock. Lauren Hill. Macy Gray. Destiny's Child. McClurkin. And the Harlem Boys Choir.
Clinton: Tom Petty, Eric Clapton, Annie Lennox and Stevie Nicks.
G'sB:
Of the current crop of pols who have enough trajectory at all to become president, I'd say the only ones who would have an inaugural show we'd like are: Senators Wyden (D-OR), Cantwell (D-WA) or Feingold (D-WI). Mark Dayton would have had a VERY good show had he stuck around long enough to consider being president. Bob Mould and Paul Westerberg for starters.
As crazed-up as he is, I'll bet Spitzer would have good music at his inauguration.
I'm voting for rainbows, gumdrops, gingerbread houses, marzipan strawberries, and Cracker Jacks smothered in a big heaping pile of Hope.
Anyone opposed is simply a Negative Nellie.
What are you, Fairlane, a communist?
I'm voting for Jesus Christ On Rye Toast.
In Praise of Copying?
Sure. Copy when it can work. Otherwise, cherry-pick as best you can.
Buffett shadowing? Looking over his shoulder? Do it. The coming week might be a good week to buy Kraft. It's probably a good time to buy Burlington Northern too.
In fact, it seems to me BNI will benefit from a major project underway in Panama: the expansion of the Canal.
But copiers must remember that some original moves require some rare talents, and certain legal insider advantages. Legal advantages.
Buffett, for instance, saw opportunities in the banking industry a number of years ago. He foresaw the sale of Federal Home Loan Bank (Freddie Mac) to the public. But there was a catch. Freddie Mac was an private organization whose stock ownership was limited to other banks in the Freddie Mac network.
Thus, he bought a small bank in the Freddie system, and was therefore able to load up on the pre-IPO shares.
He also knows a few thinks about bankruptcy. Like buying bankrupt companies.
It's hard to get a better view of a company's operations than seeing it dissected by the creditors' committee and the other sharks.
What better time to buy a company than after it's been stripped of its pesky debt and restructured with an investor-friendly balance sheet often free of those crazy union contracts and infinite healthcare obligations.
That's the heart of Berkshire-Hathaway, a former bankrupt itself. Johns-Manville, USG, Fruit of the Loom.
Copy away. If one follows Buffett's lead, it's like cheating off the smartest kid in the class. Of course, in real life, there is never a "closed-book" test. Every day the book is open. So it's not cheating.
Those are the times it's smart to practice the old Monkey-see, Monkey-do routine.
(Small factoid. Buffett was born in 1930. Hence he will turn 78 this year. Still young enough to have all his marbles.)
Then there's the business of copying as it applies to politics. I think this opens a new door. Copying, per se, is a bad idea. It is probably better to develop a "derivative" form of the master.
Don't imitate Hillary. She's not running a derivative campaign. She's imitating. But it's not working.
Hillary has no role model. Bill? Not a chance. She can't steal his ingratiating style, his act. And she can't roll back the clock.
She's 61, not 45, though it seems she's unaware she's aged. At 61, there's no youthful swagger, none of Bill's vigor and the rising animal spirits that drove his first campaign. These days, even Bill is nowhere close to the Bill of '92. But more than that, at best, she's an ersatz version of a former candidate whose rhythm no longer catches the current beat.
She's dull, a bad plaid. Fabric you can't match with prevailing decor.
Unlike Buffett, is there anyone who wants to copy Hillary? Anyone who wants her life? Certainly not among voters younger than 40. And for those who are older, they might want her opportunities, but they'd play their hands a different way.
She's off-key, out-of-step and suffering the effects of a political tin ear. All the result of a flaw in the equation underlying the design of her campaign. An outmoded theory. A slight miscalculation that's led to a mutating outcome. It's the data. It's out of date.
The nation has moved away from the pole around which it revolved when Bill was ascending. But Hillary hasn't seen it. In the movie running in her head, she's still that Wellesley girl flying on the radical ideas she got from Saul Alinsky.
Unfortunately for her is the obvious fact that she hasn't got an interesting idea in her head, new or used. Borrowed or blue.
Worse, she lacks inspiration, and going a step further, she offers none, as the firing of her deflated campaign manager reveals.
But as GB said, if one finds inspiration, one must touch its live wire, its source, and get charged with it. She's not. She hasn't found it, and that means she can't pass it on.
No slappz: thanks for the great comment. I agree with you on Buffett that he gets access to special securities that you and I do not, so he's hard to copy. I also agree that most of his great coups were not based on inside info but info that was there for all to see and act upon. Most of the great investment ideas stare the market right in the face, but few people have sufficient confidence in their ideas to push the chips in hard, as WB does. His strength is he doesn't need to be proven right in the short term, just the long.
As for Hillary, she once was really sharp, but it may be that being in DC for too long screws up your mind, same as Wall Street. Also as my wife said, one thing about her is she should never have worn striped pants, not even as a college student.
"She's 61, not 45, though it seems she's unaware she's aged. At 61, there's no youthful swagger, none of Bill's vigor and the rising animal spirits that drove his first campaign. These days, even Bill is nowhere close to the Bill of '92. But more than that, at best, she's an ersatz version of a former candidate whose rhythm no longer catches the current beat.
She's dull, a bad plaid. Fabric you can't match with prevailing decor."
ns: these comments are the epitome of ugly, sexist trash talk. you're a smart guy, why don't you just go back to the drawing board and come up with something a bit more salient, relevant and, oh yeah, accurate, to say about her. make an argument ON THE MERITS, not the cosmetics.
anita, voters vote the way they do for reasons going far beyond and going far away from ISSUES and MERITS.
In my view she is an embarrassment to feminism, not a leader. In the middle of one of the most crushing forms of disgrace a woman can suffer -- public knowledge of her husband's infidelities -- she lied to the nation either because she was too stupid to know the truth or both arrogant and stupid enough to think she possessed the skill to fool everybody.
If she were the spouse in an open marriage, that would be one thing. But we haven't heard that tale yet. If she were to admit her sexual desire topped out at 5 watts and she understood her husband was an energy hog in the libido department, I'd give her points for honesty. But she's not honest, not in any way that matters.
Meanwhile, ugly, sexist, trash talk, as you call it, is the stuff of political campaigns. John Edwards, the politician formerly known as The Breck Girl, suffered for his vanity. Obama's looks are reconsidered a dozen times a day.
His soaring oratory is another favorite of those who think about the medium without realizing there is no message. He's got that fine stentorian voice, just like Louis Farrakhan.
Obama appeared in a photo with his arm around the shoulder of Al Sharpton. That's a deal breaker, right there. Al Sharpton, an overnight guest in the White House? A shot with Osama bin laden might be worse, but not much.
Meanwhile, where's Cindy Sheehan in all this? She ought to be sitting on Obama's lap. But I heard she was in Egypt getting an award, or something.
Oh, don't forget that photo of Hillary kissing Suha Arafat. Yeah, the sisterhood crosses many boundaries.
Anyway, she's a Wellesley Girl Class of 1969, and that says a lot about why she's not presidential timber.
anita, the following you-tube video shows Bill doing his best to torpedo Hillary's campaign. He's showing his age and his unwillingness to be politic.
He's speaking his mind, always a dangerous thing for someone who wants to bring many differing groups together. Those who speak their minds alienate most people while speaking to the hearts of a very small number.
Bill rants at pro-lifers heckling him and looks foolish as a result. Translation, by extension, Hillary looks foolish.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XfmJeIJpns
clearly, "feminism" is a double-edged sword. one is damned if one does and then damned if they don't.
i am not, nor have i ever, held hillary clinton up as a paragon of feminism. how and why women make "to the top" is a far more complex story than just feminism, and hillary, of all people understands that. and whatever compromises she has made with regard to her marriage to bill clinton is something she's having to live with. and i don't say she shouldn't be judged based on those decisions. she's held herself out there for people to discern if she is ready for the presidency and people have every right to their opinions.
what i object to is the broader issue of the double standard against women in general, and hillary clinton in particular, are so often held. whereas a man is strong if he stands up to his attackers or expresses opinions with convictions, she (or any other woman) is so very often "a bitch." a 61-year-old man, in terms of their political wherewithal, is often at the height of his potency due to his experience and judgement. a woman is considered tired, or as you put it, "a dull, bad plaid." that is SO VERY offensive, on so many levels, i can barely control myself.
yes, hillary may have made a deal with the devil very early on and she may (and i am just saying "may") be paying a certain price for it now. bottom line is that she, on her merits, stands as a far better qualified candidate than barack obama simply because 1) she has stated her policies clearly, coherently and cogently; 2) she knows on a far deeper level the workings of government and, in particular the workings of those areas of government with which a future president must be most versed: armed services and national security; 3) she has the people of her own state backing her by a large majority, because she's worked really hard on their behalf; 4) she has a long working relationship with foreign leaders of all stripes; 5) she's NOT a GenXer, yet she understands quite well the issues and priorities of that generation and does in fact have a strong outreach to younger voters.
i could go on. but you need to figure out why you hate her so much, beyond her use of plaid. i think it goes a bit deeper than that.
ns: i saw that video earlier. so what? bill clinton is torpedoing her candidacy. no news there.
and ns: check out THIS u-tube to see how "authentic" obama's "soaring rhetoric" actually is. methinks it's partly david axelrod and his merry band of speechwriters recycling work from previous clients. what think you, young man?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M6x1H08aFc
Of Al Sharpton Chris Rock once said, the only thing separating him from a serious political career was a haircut and an apology. He got the haircut, no need for an apology in light of the far worse misdeeds of so many politicians, so let's go!
anita, you claimed that "clearly, "feminism" is a double-edged sword. one is damned if one does and then damned if they don't."
Not true if the "feminist" is honest, which Hillary is not.
As far as your five Hillary points go, I think they express what was meant by Deborah Tannen when she examined what each gender believes is being said while speaking.
Anyway, you mentioned her "compromises" in marriage to Bill. Sorry, but when a woman is humiliated on national television with her own lies, she's gone way way way beyond compromise.
She was the victim/doormat in a bedroom farce of epic proportion. A cringe-inducing spectacle. Woman may endure many humiliations privately. But one area where the sexes differ is in public humiliation.
Most men can agree that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. But the frenzy of a woman scorned before the entire country must reach 11 on the Richter Scale of emotional havoc. That would be normal and understandable. As would a subsequent divorce.
But no. The doormat weighed the impact of a divorce against her ambition and decided her career goals MIGHT suffer. After considering the possibility of career wounds, she decided she could live with marital humiliation.
She's old school. We live in an age when it's okay if women are divorced and reaching for higher planes. In fact, it's unlikely a balanced person will get anywhere near the top.
Hillary's own campaign manager -- Patty Solis Doyle -- proved it by getting fired for wishing she were working from home where she could see her kids -- ages 6 and 9, who will never be those wonderful ages again. But, she realized, there will be future female presidential candidates.
Meanwhile, it is so often said that to succeed a woman must "be like a man," which gets back to the Praise of Copying" that inspired this blog entry.
It seems that when women speak of women they too say that women "must be like a man" to get anywhere. But in politics there's no reason to believe this silly claim. In business settngs yes, where the power structure favors men.
But not in politics where everyone has an equally powerful vote. Especially not in politics where the number of women is probably a bit larger than the number of men.
We've reached a fascinating point in the American Parade. The party devoted to Identity Politics is now witnessing a match between its two chief affinity groups: blacks and women. At this point, it looks as though support is close to an even split. That's terrible news for Hillary. It's euphoria for Obama.
By the way. I do not support Obama. He's merely the other guy in the Dem race. Despite being tagged as the black candidate, he is, more accurately, an identity crisis in a suit.
Anyway, she's struggling now, which was something the campaign organizers never dreamed would happen when they hoisted her up as the icon around whom they believed all Dems would rally. The fact that she and her campaign team were surprised by the struggle is another reason it's obvious she's not good presidential material.
Of course when you've been through only two senatorial campaigns -- one against a hapless goofball like Rick Lazio and another against the drunk mayor of Yonkers, it's tough to convince anyone that you're an experienced campaigner.
Women running for president should forget Hillary. Forget "being more like a man," and simply be women rallying and uniting people from a range of groups, while never losing sight of the fact that like it or not, male issues do not go away when females lead.
no offense G'Boner, the Tawana Brawley case was a misdeed in sore need of an apology. not only with regard to the race-based scam he perpetrated upon the people of new york, but more particularly with regard to what he did to the "accused rapist" steven pagones. he tied the guy up in frivolous and false litigation for years and he nearly destroyed the man's life and livelihood. no apology? that sucks big time.
the fact that what he did has gone away in the eyes of most people is very sad. and the fact that people, like imus and BILL CLINTON, have to go to him to apologize when they make statements he finds offensive is a very absurd to me.
This has been my best thread in 2 1-2 years of doing this. We've had it all: great writing, exotica, a range of topics, humor and rancor. GARY'S BONER, I insist upon another guest post!
No_slappz: I respect your knowledge of finance, but you've got some weird obsession with Clinton I don't understand. I would suggest using the same pragmatic approach you take to securities analysis in your approach to politics. It can be done. There are whole industries devoted to it as well as a lot of very sharp gamblers.
All of the subjective stuff you write about her does have some statistical valence, but it doesn't EXPLAIN anything. It doesn't even EXPLAIN all of the votes against her.
Your feelings about her are just that and they say as much about you as they say about her. So, I support Anita's point of view here. Go back to the drawing board. Using "Plaid" and "legs" and "Wellesley" and "Suha Arafat" to try to PRICE an election is like trying to catch smoke with sieve.
I don't think anyone draws a comparison between her and Bill Clinton or between her and Cindy Sheehan or between her and an important feminist, say, Germaine Greer. Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton. She has her own way of doing things. If people like it they vote for her; if they don't like it they vote against her. Politics.
I came into this not particularly liking her, but I believed she was pretty much a 1/6 favorite for the nomination so I made a good sized bet. I've been proven wrong on the pricing. I think it's pick 'em now. I've been flexible enough to reduce my position and pick up a big scalp pre-Potomac.
Probably, the right thing to do before Wisconsin is to get to a point where the weighted price I'm taking on HRC is around +180 or so.
But there are issues having to do with BEHAVIORAL FINANCE which will prevent me from doing that even though it is the "efficient" course of action. In order to get to that point, I'd have to bet so much on HRC at the market price that I'd be stuck with a straight bet on her versus Obama which would make me uncomfortable.
So...(and this is why, Gary'sBoner, I SO VERY MUCH SUPPORT THE WORK OF THE MORE SERIOUS BEHAVIORAL THEORISTS) I am going to try to REDUCE my bad position on HRC where I can and pick up pure arbitrages and scalps where I can in an effort to get to a result which gives me a trivial loss if Obama wins and an even more trivial win in Clinton wins.
I just don't see things in black and white the way you do, No_slappz. All of life is a random variable. And I agree with Anita that your sentiments with regard to HRC do indeed betray an inherent sexism. I'm not a PC guy, though. You are not only entitled to those views, you are also free to express them here at will. Anita, likewise, is free to write what she likes.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
But because everybody's made this such a good thread, Uncle Kelso's going to give out some steam. The Panama Canal project is yesterday's news. Tomorrow's news is the Bay Cleanup which is budgeted at $16 billion but has not be contracted out and won't be until a new president is chosen. If the new president is Herrera or Perez-Balladares, expect it to go at the $16bn level. If Varela wins, expect it to go much lower if at all.
will panama use american or latin american or european contractors (primarily) to do the clean-up?
at that cost, it seems, to me at least, like a job for brown and root or halliburton !!!
;)
gary, comedians offer an endless supply of ridiculous interpretations of life. A sense of the incongruous is often said to define the heart of comedy. Rock has a well developed sense of the incongruous.
While Rock may say Al could apologize his way into office, the idea is so silly even Al knows it's not true.
As he now knows, when you don't pay your income taxes for most of your adult life, the IRS comes a-knockin'.
I happen to live a couple of blocks from Al's former residence in Brooklyn. He left that spacious house a couple of years ago when he ditched his wife. The house is at 1901 Ditmas Ave, Brooklyn. Corner house, Ditmas and E. 19th street.
Amazingly, it's owned by another black preacher. A firebrand who preaches financial empowerment with the enthusiasm of Reverend Ike, if you know that name.
If you pull that thread, you will see into the parallel universe of black charlatans hoping to accomplish the same as the white TV evangelists who regularly succumb to the Devil and his tricks.
Anyway, If the Tawana Brawley issue were not enough, Al also has the Freddy's Fashion Mart tragedy on his head. That's the one where he urged his followers on 125th St to "drive out the white interloper, drive out the Jew" -- that was Freddy who runs a store on 125th st that employes black and hispanic workers.
One of Al's followers ultimately ran into the store, poured gasoline on the merchandise, started a fire, then began shooting the black and hispanic employees, killing about eight people in total. That happened about ten years ago.
However, if Rock believes a black electorate would elect Al, he's showing considerable contempt for black voters. Meanwhile, if Al were to hold elective office, he'd have to take a huge pay-cut, as these things go. The last thing he wants is the kind of attention he'd get from certain US government agencies that would peel back the veneer of his organizations and those of his affiliates if he were to get elected.
Sharpton is a very complicated guy. Anita's points are all valid. I also think that during his actual political campaigns, he was a paragon of decency, consistently non-racial class consciousness and lively humor.
His current donning of the crown and sceptre and accepting this ring-kissing in light of how pleasantly he campaigned is foul.
kelso, I have not offered a "black & white" scenario of Hillary's chances. She's in the game and may well win the nomination. Her supporters will overlook or ignore the points about her that interest me, and that may be all it takes for her to lead the party into November.
As far as whether any of my comments explain votes for or against Hillary, well, I'll say that few women want to discover their lives are like a Jerry Springer show while they are standing before a vast crowd of people.
Women are masterful in many ways. Gracious and graceful under pressure, stoic and immovable when it matters. But for most women, public humiliation is crushing. It is the ultimate defeat.
Meanwhile, much is revealed about the humiliator in those moments when the truth breaks free.
N_s:
I think your blanket statements about women in general put the lie to your most recent comment about HRC.
How could you possibly KNOW what WOMEN are like? How could you KNOW how the Clintons have arranged their marriage?
I've come to the belief that the most important tool in anyone's professional toolkit is the ability to say "I don't know." Just like in poker, the "check-fold" is a very underrated move!
excellent points kelso, particularly with regard to the clinton marriage.
and ns: humiliation the ultimate defeat for a woman? i beg to differ once again. every person who has the courage to put themselves out in the open for all to see in the process of running for public office is fully aware of the potential for humiliation. in fact, why would anyone try anything new if one fears humiliation? why play in a piano recital, why run for mayor, why step outside one's own front door?
the tolls of humiliation are not driven by gender. what fires one woman up might crush another woman, or man for that matter.
kelso, anita,
I wrote:
"But for MOST women, public humiliation is crushing. It is the ultimate defeat."
Most. Most. A qualifier.
Anita, are you going to tell me that a less-than-perfect score in a piano recital is as emotionally fraught for girls as the revelation of a husband's betrayals occurring on the national stage?
As I am sure you understand, it is one thing for a couple to wrestle with these issues privately. But it is something else when the whole country is buzzing.
Look, there's no doubt MOST policitians are close to shameless. But Hillary was not an elected figure and had not been the subject of media prying until 1992. But even as first lady she enjoyed a certain buffer that has generally kept political wives somewhat apart from the fray. Of course that changed. She did break ground for first ladies that way. But she wasn't breaking the ground she had hoped to plow.
In any case, I do believe every man knows that some public displays displease women. And the cry of "You humiliated me in front of everybody (friends, family, co-wokrers, take your pick)" is not a foreign phrase.
Anita: Good point about humiliation. You have to get in there and play the game to win. You also have to get in there, play the game, and LOSE to learn how to win. If you don't experience humiliation, you don't know what the worst-case scenario is and whether or not you can handle it. True for men and I've been given no reason to believe it's not equally true for men.
No_slappz:
Because I run a progressive, but not PC, blog, and am one of the few progressive bloggers who takes you seriously and appreciates your contributions, I am going to give you some points to ponder about women, men, sex and sexism.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with being more attracted to Jenna Jameson than to Hillary Clinton. There's every reason to think that Hillary Clinton would be a good president. These are completely separate issues.
I am very curious, though, to read your opinion on the sexual attractiveness or lack thereof of the "Black Hat women" in Brooklyn. I'm guessing you don't mind the "Black Hat" womens' appearance. As for me, I don't care if HRC wears plaid WITH stripes and is 80 years old, she's more attractive than any 18-yo shave-head, burlap sack, Black Hat lady.
And I know she'd make a better president than any goddamnd one of them!
But I'm curious. If those shave-head, burlap sack ladies turn you on, I think it's totally fine. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. But if that is your shtick, then it's a little rich of you to be trashing HRC's physical appearance or clothing choices.
I mean, really! Shave-head, burlap-sack? I like something a little more conventionally sexy and stylish but again, that's me.
I'm going to leave this string open because it has been so entertaining and informative.
And once again, I have to invite Gary'sBoner and AnitaXanaxNow to PLEASE guest post here any time you like.
No_slappz: I like that you take time with your commentaries but you need to sharpen up a bit. I like right-wing opinions on my site, but I know that Gary'sBoner is deft enought to do a Right-Wing Zionist shtick better than you can even though that's not exactly where he is politically. On the economic/financial front, both G'sB and AXN can do far left or far right or anywhere in between.
Fairlane as well, but he's got his hands full with the Jonestown Clan.
Bubs: I liked your contribution on the "nuts-and-bolts" aspect of Obama. If Chicago municipal stuff is your bag or just politics in general is what you like best, I invite you, too, to guest post.
I always have more real work than I can handle and I'm such a workaholic that blogging is a terrible vice for me. I'd love as much help as possible.
Thanks, G'sB. You couldn't have done a more perfect job.
Not to try to get the "last word", but I was thinking back to the Lewinsky episode and why Hillary stood there and took it, and recalled that my instinct at the time was that she was a patriot who believed what she and Bill were doing was more important that her personal life. Of course everyone has become so cynical in the last 10 years that such a thought is not even mentioned once on this whole thread.
So, no, I don't believe she's an ambitious monster. I think it's way more complicated, as is her marriage, as are all marriages. After years of watching m friends divorce, or stay together inexplicably, I long ago concluded no one can understand a marriage but the two people living it.
On cynicism, here's a handy rule of thumb: the next time you impute a motive to HRC or any other public figure, ask yourself if you are seeing things the way Maureen Dowd would, and if so, you better rethink.
Also to close the loop on Dylan/Bruce, Springsteen once said that Dylan's lyrics opened the door for him and all the others to write songs that were "about something." Giving credit where it's due: another admirable quality.
Very, very strong THEOREM, Gary's Boner. I'll call it GARY'S BONER'S UNIFYING THEOREM OF THE FAMOUS, THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC.
"...the next time you impute a motive to HRC or any other public figure, ask yourself if you are seeing things the way Maureen Dowd would, and if so, you better rethink..."
People bettah tattoo this shit on their thighs so they don't forget.
KELSO'S COROLLARY TO GARY'S BONER'S UNIFYING THEOREM OF THE FAMOUS, THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC. "If you're a dude, do you really want to be agreeing with Maureen Dowd about anything?"
[NB: Anyone who takes above as a sexist remark is an idiot, because I'll extend the corollary to include "but if you are a dude, you DO want to be agreeing with BAC, D-CUP, DIANE TOMLINSON, FRANIAM, FREIDABEE, SUZIRIOT...and a cast of 1000s of mad women thinkers on EVERYTHING!"]
kelso,
There is more than one question in your question about the Women in Black. When the weather is warmer many of the younger women parade along the sidewalk of Avenue J in sweaters that fit remarkably well. Some wear blouses on which a few buttons are strained, the pressure of their knockers testing the tensile strength of the thread.
They’re wearing the long skirts but they haven’t shaved their heads, which means a lot of good hair is flowing. Some have reasonably stylish haircuts. Many are lucky. They have good cheekbones, jawlines, provocative eyebrows and mouths. I am sure many of them look stunning without their clothes. And it’s just a fact of female anatomy that it’s impossible to hide all the evidence of a superior set of curves.
But the other question implied by your curiosity is about my view of their sexual temperament. And of that, I have no idea. But it looks to me as though some great potential goes untapped. I suppose I should read up on permitted sexual practices among the Black Hat crowd. There are the better known issues of sexual conduct – the sheet -- but I’m curious about couples who violate the rules. About the popularity of some undoubtedly impermissible acts. It seems to me some of these women are familiar with mind-blanking orgasms.
Unfortunately, I think the dictates of religion overpower most female lust in the area. There is a wig-store on Coney Island Avenue that recently became the object of a rabbi’s wrath. I haven’t gotten into the whole story, but a local rabbi has urged a boycott of the store because there are photos of women in the window display wearing wigs, but, in the eyes of the rabbi, they look like hookers.
The wig-store flap has become an issue on a couple of local websites, and if things keep going, I’ll probably read an article about it in the NY Post in a few days.
Meanwhile, though a number of the women of Avenue J possess obvious physical qualities, I have no intention of cracking the religious walls between us. Clearly, some of them could be trouble, the kind of trouble that comes from understanding what they have. But that realization is not likely. They will, I suppose, fail to self-actualize in that department.
On the other hand, a few women might show some resistance to conforming, but I don’t see signs of a revolt in the area. Anyway, all the Jewish women in my life have been Reform Jews as are my sons.
As for your reference to Jenna Jameson, I have a bad feeling she’s got AIDS.
N_s:
A very thorough and interesting answer as usual. Also, I must say that I am thrown for a loss to find out that you are Reform. I would have lost a lot of money betting Conservative+ !
No idea about the health of Jenna Jameson. I am led to understand, however, that as a matter of probability theory, an HIV- man needs to have unprotected, penetrative intercourse with an HIV+ woman 400 times to be even money to get infected. It has to do with the ratio of the surface areas of the mucus membranes on the theoretical side and the observed results seem to back up the theory.
If she's sick, though, I'll pass!
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