THE NUCLEAR OPTION

It seems as if Kelso's last post scared some folks, what with all this talk about nuclear war. Kelso certainly didn't mean to be alarmist, merely realistic. There is nothing good going on in the Straits Of Hormuz right now. Norman Podhoretz, Godfather Of Neo-Conservatism claimed to be praying for an assault upon Iran. Joe Lieberman has echoed those sentiments. The Tissue Of Lies (New York Times, for you newcomers) has decided once again that the Iraq war is a good thing. Can an Iran war be far behind now that Congress under the magnificent stewardship of Nancy Pelosi (D-LockheedMartin) and Harry Reid (D-OperationRescue, Harrah's Gaming) has authorized the President to do as he chooses with Iran?

In the last post, we posited the possibility that some American Zionist with clout somewhere would be bright enough to pull a Nixon-In-China and stop Cheney from this course of action. No such luck. The pathetic kike chickenhawks are up to their same old tricks. And there are precious few Democrats, and none outside the Black and Progressive Caucuses who are saying anything about it for fear of being called Anti-Semitic. There is some hope on the horizon from elsewhere, but we'll get to that later. Attention, mainstream Democrats: as a Jew Kelso grants permission to read Ha'aretz online and make up your own mind about this. Remember, Kelso's part of the 2/3 majority of Jews who don't favor war with Iraq or Iran. Don't piss us off. We can fuck up your campaigns real bad. We've got more money than the other 1/3. They just dress nicer.

Kelso heard either on Air America or Nova-M that Bush was sitting on ready to bomb Iran himself at some point when the Gonzales and Pat Tillman business gets too heavy if Israel were to demur. Apparently, Israel not only demurred but expressed in strong terms that bombing Iran would not be the greatest course of action. It never did seem to make sense that Israel would want to be part of the slaughter of 10,000,000 Persian Jews even if that allowed its patron America to do the statue routine with Ahminejad and Khameni. Not that even a Blackwater or KBR mercenary would particularly want to stage something like that while taking in nuclear fallout.

Good on Israel. Probably a political calculation by Ohmert, knowing that the Zionist days are numbered with the likely election of Barak or Ayalon as next PM, and while something really dumb like bombing Iran would keep the right out of power for decades, he or Netanyahu do stand some chance against a rejuventated Labor Party.

As always, money talks and bullshit walks. Here's where we are. The percentage possibility of an overt air strike on Iran by the US, Israel or both the the third Friday of December 2007 impounded in the Intrade market for such an event is just over 13%. By the third Friday in February, the market gives such an event a 25% probability. That's not exactly comforting but it's better than the 22%/50% we observed some weeks back. Here's the link:

https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=37985&eventSelect=37985&updateList=true&showExpired=false

So, what does Kelso thihk will happen? He thinks that he doesn't know anymore. He thinks he used to think that capitalism had a sort of self-enforcing mechanism that would prevent a democratic republic from going over the edge into fascism and glide ever closer to national socialism. He thinks he doesn't think that anymore. He thinks that it's all gone too far with these Christian and Zionist crazies and they may well be the tail that's wagging the American dog. (Doing our damndest to return that phrase to its rightful meaning, it's meaning before that movie came out). He thinks that it's possible that this time bullshit talks and money walks. But he's got his hopes pinned on the good sense of the state of Israel, and no matter what anyone thinks of Israel, especially on the settlement question, Israel will always be a better place to pin hopes than the United States Of Embarrassment is. Again, it's all speculative for Kelso, but if a Republican other than Paul is elected President or notional Democrat Barrack "Church Lady" Obama is elected, Iran could get roasted for grins.

Closer to home, one could imagine the same type of thing happening on the other side of the Risk board with Uribe's Colombia filling the role of Ohmert's Israel in a strike on Venezuela. And if, like in Israel, Uribe tells Bush "no way, gringo, I've got an election to win and Gaviria beats me if I do this," perhaps, agains, The USE will go it alone against Chavez. And the day the USE assaults a capitalist country (albeit one with social democratic features) with a lot of oil, school is also out. And it's out for Kelso, too, because Kelso ain't living too far from Venezuela as the crow flies. That means a lot of global shit to be sure, but regionally? It would mean destabilization, ruined economies, refugee crises, and many many dead. But who the hell is there to tell Bush no? Pelosi? Please. Reid? Not likely. Obama? Obama does what Pat Robertson tells him to do. Jack Murtha? It didn't work last time and Mr. Pentagon Murtha would probably think a war against Venezuela would be a winner. Hillary Clinton? Possibly. Edwards? Somehow, it doesn't seem in character for hm to oppose a war when it really counts.

Actually, the more Kelso ponders all this, the more he's convinced that the election of 2006 was not a failure by Rove, it was a smashing success. He cut his losses, picked up Lieberman, and got a very compliant Congress. The Democrats MUST find some way to hire Rove away. Come on, Dean, make the guy a big offer and tell him that he can cover up his apostasy by coming out of the closet making the rounds with Oprah, etc., doing the national public "confession" thing: "as a gay man, I can no longer in good conscience stay a Republican....yada, yada, yada..."

Just a thought.

Kelso's Nuts love you.