"JJ" MAY ADVISE DISCRETION, BUT WE ARE FEARLESS!

A ROUND OF APPLAUSE PLEASE FOR THE ORACLE ON AN OUTSTANDING LIST! HER LIST WAS INSTRUCTIVE AND COMMENTS WILL FOLLOW, BUT FIRST....

RESULTS OF WEEK 7 OF KELSO V Lady Judith Francesca de la Samlð, The Oracle at Acheron NCAA Football Handicapping Contest

BOTTOM FIGURE GOING INTO WEEK 6: KELSO "leads" LJFDELSTOAA (7.27) to (9.75)

TOP FIGURE FOR WEEK 7 : LJFDELSTOAA +5.85, KELSO (6.41)

BOTTOM FIGURE COMING OUT OF WEEK 7: LJFDELSTOAA (1.42) leads KELSO (16.16) and that children is a huevo puta big lead. Just getting in a position to be near parity for bowls will require some magic from me in the final week of the regular season, meaning more than one big MONEY LINE upsets.

KELSO

ARIZONA STATE [+3-101] over Southern Cal LOSER
BOWLING GREEN [-6-110] over Toledo WINNER
LSU [-11"-105] over Arkansas LOSER
CENTRAL FLORIDA [-18"-110] over Texas El-Paso LOSER
MEMPHIS [-8-110] over Southern Methodist LOSER
Tulsa [-12-105] over RICE LOSER
Ball State [-8-105] over NO ILLINOIS LOSER
WASHINGTON U [-5-105] over Washington State LOSER
SAN JOSE STATE [+10"-101] over Texas Christian LOSER
Florida Atlantic [-11-112] over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL WINNER

LJFDELSTOAA

MEMPHIS -8 [-1.10] SMU LOSER
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -11 [-1.12] FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL WINNER
GEORGIA -3 [-1.10] GEORGIA TECH WINNER
AUBURN -5.5 [-1.05] ALABAMA WINNER
OKLAHOMA -11 [-1.01] OKLAHOMA STATE WINNER
UCLA +2 [-1.05] OREGON WINNER (GREAT RESULT)
FLORIDA -14 [+1.01] FLORIDA STATE WINNER
VIRGINIA TECH -3.5 [+1.02 ] VIRGINIA WINNER
LOUISIANA MONROE -2.5[-1.13] LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE WINNER
NORTH CAROLINA -14 [-1.08] DUKE LOSER

OK, so, why is the Oracle's list instructive? For the most part there are two schools of handicapping: traditional and quantitative. Traditionalists all die broke. Traditionalists do the usual frat-boy thing of trying to apply their own experiences in high school sports to professional (make no mistake about it, the NCAA is a Professional league) athletes and teams. You all heard the crap 1,000,000x before: who's a choker? who wants to win more? which team has done whatsit against whosit over the last 15 meetings (a small and perfectly-unstationary sample size)? Quants decompose which factors go into producing points and create models with which to estimate what the "fair" price of the game should be, i.e., the price at which if you played the game 1,000,000 times you'd end up even. Quants like me look for the biggest differentials and usually those are to be found in off-conference matches. We are looking to get a touchdown or more the best of it.

The Oracle by this list has shown herself to belong to the only other legitimate school of handicapping: THOSE WHO FADE THE HYPE. On Rivalry Week, the traditionalists always look to play big conference underdogs, because they feel that the underdogs without bowl chances "want" to win these rivalry games more than the favorites do. So, the traditionalists expect, the favorites will coast and maybe win but not cover. The linemakers adjust for this. So, by playing mostly big-conference favorites this weeks, The Oracle, while not looking for the huge inefficiences in off-conference play was able to get around a 2pt-conversion or a field-goal the best of it with less volatility. Good show.

Kelso's Nuts love you