Unfortunately, estimable bloggers "Harvey" and "AnitaXanaxNow" have decided to wait a while before joining Kelso's Nuts. That, however, has not stopped a brave soul from joining the fray. His nom-de-blog is Gary's Boner, because (both of us being 'Mats fans of old) if there's a Kelso's Nuts there ought to be a Gary's Boner. Gary tells me that I'm not going to like his post. That I'm going to find it politically offensive and I have every right to censor it. Fuck that shit. This guy is a serious thinker and writer and I've already voiced my approval for Clark Clifford's entreaty to read both The Nation and The Weekly Standard. I also approve of the inclusion in Jonestown of Johnny Wingnut http://johnnywingnut.wordpress.com/ Furthermore, HELL thinks highly of Right Wing Republian Media Lizzy! http://insidedcandredcarpets.blogspot.com/, so what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
As usual, there is no censorship on Kelso's Nuts. My first reading of Gary's Boner's first post here will be yours. I take no credit for his brilliance, nor blame for his errors. As in my favorite 1970s United Way commercial with LA Rams FS Nolan Cromwell and Sylvester Stallone as "Rocky," the Boner can always take a lesson. Or give one. So, be neither sparing if you disagree nor sensitive if you don't like his response.
Kelso's Nuts love you
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My old friend Kelso has kindly offered me a chance to guest host, and I decided that it would do him and his readers a disservice to act as an “amen corner” for his own opinions. Instead, let me take the festivities a little to the right for some straight talk on unions, economic growth, etc.
First, to establish my bona fides, I am a registered Democrat and I grew up in a union household – my father belonged to the printers’ local, and I certainly benefited from the solid wages, medical care, etc. However I also saw with my own eyes some of the, let’s call them “productivity disenhancements” that arose from his union status, for example his absolute delight when he got “laid off” and could thus collect most of his paycheck for a couple of weeks while hanging around at home. (Presumably his company had to employ more men than it needed, leading to them cycling in and out of work.) If I use the phrase “no-show union job” you will think of the Sopranos, but it seems to me that pay for reduced work not only is not aberrational, but actually integral to the union lifestyle. (As an aside, I think the funniest Sopranos moment is when Chrissy drives up to a union construction site singing, “If I were a carpenter, and you were a douchebag.”)
Going back to “what the union did for me,” yes, we were lucky that my father got into one – via nepotism – but what about all the families that couldn’t? If some Dominican immigrant arrived in New York with mad typesetting skills, but didn’t have a friend in the union – or maybe they just didn’t like his color – where was the fairness in stopping him from plying his trade? For that matter, if Dick Wolf spotted you on the street and said you were perfect to play the killer in an episode of “Law and Order – Enlarged Prostate Division”, should you be shut out because you’re not in SAG? And hey, why is law school three years long? I went, and 18 months would’ve been plenty. Why is it torture to get an MD, or an architect’s license, requiring the acquisition of tons of extraneous knowledge that has little bearing on competence in the profession? I can tell you why: to exclude new people and support pricing power, as all guilds have done since the Middle Ages.
More generally, and crucially, is the union/guild system one that promotes the overall growth and welfare of a society? On this subject the best thing I have read is Mancur Olson’s “Rise and Decline of Nations,” of which Wikipedia has a good summary:
[S]mall distributional coalitions tend to form over time in countries. Groups like cotton-farmers, steel-producers, and labor unions will have the incentives to form political lobbies and influence policies in their favor. These policies will tend to be protectionist and anti-technology, and will therefore hurt economic growth; but since the benefits of these policies are selective incentives concentrated amongst the few coalitions’ members, while the costs are diffused throughout the whole population, the "Logic" dictates that there will be little public resistance to them. Hence as time goes on, and these distributional coalitions accumulate in greater and greater numbers, the nation burdened by them will fall into economic decline.
Olson supports his theory with much statistical evidence of the far stronger economic performance in the post-WW II period by countries with less unionization and fewer restraints on trade, compared to those with more. In recent years I personally have participated as an investor in numerous “economic miracle” countries run by young supply-siders, such as Estonia (no corporate or capital gains tax; flat income tax; limited if any unions).
As an example of the catastrophic decline of a nation, Olson makes a fascinating study of the Great Depression, arguing that its principal cause was Herbert Hoover’s promotion of trade associations in the 1920’s when he was Secretary of Commerce, to the extent that they “were established in virtually every major industry and in many minor ones….” These associations lobbied for massive tariffs, setting off a chain reaction in which trading partners retaliated and exports fell, while domestic spending also fell, largely because oligopolies in the manufacturing sector prevented price reductions proportionate to the decline in demand. I won’t go through the whole story, but anyone running for President should be required to read it, especially vest-pocket populists and neo-protectionists like John Edwards and Mike Huckabee.
At the time Olson published “Rise and Decline,” in 1982, he had to use European countries to support his theory, but the greatest example of a post-union economy was just getting started in the U.S., as Reagan had broken PATCO (air traffic controllers’ union) and the Hormel strike was only two years away. (Re Hormel: I know Midwesterners who were so stunned as the strike ground to its miserable conclusion that their entire life-plan was redirected to the “knowledge economy,” resulting in the 1980’s intellectual ferment in Minnesota. I recommend Barbara Kopple’s superb documentary “American Dream,” about Hormel.) In any case, the U.S.’ amazing economic performance since 1982 may well be the best proof of Olson’s theory, as 25 years of almost continuous growth has in large part derived from a flexible labor force that has adapted to virtually any economic conditions – including the current ones.
In this regard, of all the pundits who forecast doom for the U.S. (including your man Kelso), saying stuff like “we don’t produce anything anymore” (in fact we are still the #1 export economy in the world), how many have gone on the road to find out what Americans are actually doing at work? Well, I propose that we rent a bus like some modern-day economic Merry Pranksters, and drive from Colorado Springs down to Phoenix, over to Nashville, and back up to Chatham, N.J., and see for ourselves. And the inevitable Tom Wolfe book about us, “The Venti Latte Thought-Experiment.”
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
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13 comments:
As Richard Masur to Jeff Bridges in "Who'll Stop The Rain" as he burns Bridges's fingers on his stove: "Like, listen, schmuck...."
First of all, when I said "'we' don't make anything anymore," it was hyperbole. It was followed by "except entertainment and government debt." And I included a lament that this along with the political naivete of the American people were very unfortunate states of nature given that the output/unit-of-labor in the USA is among the highest if not the highest in the world. Is it my problem that Alan Greenspan liked unemployment?
Your point about a Domenican being shut out of the Teamsters is well-taken. 'Twas ever thus; 'twill ever be. Yet, are Italian and Irish-Americans going to have great prospects now in the TWU or SEIU? There's power in numbers.
The raisons d'etre of the guilds and unions were not necessarily to fuck the entrepreneur. They were to pass the skill along, BARGAIN COLLECTIVELY, and with luck produce highly to the unit of labor. I don't doubt the reliability of the study you cite. There are, however, studies and studies and studies and studies on this very topic, so your study's VALIDITY while not disproven is not proven either.
Of course, redundancy and corruption are features of unions just as fraud, theft and exploitation are features of corporations. We're all animals.
Oddly enough, at least in Panama, with the help of Bill Clinton's anti-interventionist approach and George Bush's pretensions at empire, we seem to enjoy a society both you, Gary's Boner, and I can approve of. We have a top corporate tax rate of 10% and a top capital-gains rate of 1% yet we have a strong union movement with all of the features you find in every other industrialized nation: on-site stewards, schedules of compensation, etc.
How could that be? It happened because Panama has been growing at over 10% a year for, well, since Clinton let Moscoso and the Assembly tear up Pappy's PNAC-like constitution and write their own. Then GWB decided dictator of the USA and the Middle East wasn't enough, he wanted Europe and Switzerland especially in his portfolio.
What happened? They browbeat the Swiss into turning over the SWFT codes and your (and my) beloved capitalists expecting privacy voted Southwest with their feet into the motherly arms of the banking system of Panama, which given more business than it could possibly handle, was only too happy to pay the max tax of 10%. Hence, lots of economic growth required skilled, UNIONIZED workers. Entrepreneurs and bigger-sized capitalists paying a very sweet rate of taxation. National health. And everybody's laughing.
And you wonder why I call George Bush a Stalinist Communist?
Great fuckig line: “Law and Order – Enlarged Prostate Division”...velly, velly funny Sopranos quote, too.
Welcome.
Kelso's Nuts trivia: so far, there have been 3 guest posts (Spartacus, DistributorCapNY and Gary's Boner) and all 3 have been written by native New Yorkers.
Boner, make this a regular part of your life. As Fagin to Oliver: "consider yourself one of us."
I just realized there was a "common thread" between my post and the nickname you graced me with, i.e. my reference to the Minnesota intellectual ferment of the '80s. I had been thinking of Replacements, Husker Du, The Minutemen (are they Minnesotans?), etc.
Anyway, honestly I have organized labor in my blood, but feel very pessimistic about its future in a globalized economy. I am involved myself in moving jobs from Scandinavia to the Baltics at 1/5 the cost, and from the Baltics to Ukraine, and I can tell you that the alternative is bankruptcy, because we are competing with the Chinese and Indians and whoever else.
I can't speak to the Panamanian miracle, but from the countries I do know in Latin America, you can usually find a correlation between free trade and labor and GDP growth -- as witness Brazil's surprisingly low growth rate given all its resources. By the way, they now have a senior official in Brazil, Roberto Unger, who was one of the silliest people ever to teach at Harvard Law, and who uses terms like 'anti-necessitarian.' I choose Hank Paulson over Unger any day.
with nuts boner --- i guess we need Stuart's sac to complete the anatomy lesson
Ahh, Kelso faces Fairlane's Johnny Wingnut problem. This is inevitable when a left-wing blog takes on a bright right-winger. Emphasize the word BRIGHT.
Gary's Boner like Johnny Wingnut is just too fucking smart. The arguments are fresh, the reasoning good, and the back-up there. So, what happens? The choir doesn't get pissed off and doesn't shout down the "different" point of view. The choir stops singing and says "wait a minute; maybe he's right; no, he's wrong, but he sure sounds good being wrong."
So, like Johnny Wingnut is for Jonestown, Gary's Boner will be our reality check not our Alan Colmes-like pinata.
That's good and bad. Not much in the way of fireworks, but a nice fit it seems. I feel like a bit of a fool thinking that a guy as educated as Gary's Boner is, a guy with whom I've drained Rolling Rocks at the Spring until it was time to either vomit or order Hot-And-Sour Soup from Wo Hop's, s guy who saw no problem ditching his high-power job for a day to join me for gambling at The Select followed by a late afternoon showing of Eddie Murphy Raw and some pool at Tekk, would write an anti-union screed about God-And-Country.
At least I got one error past him. It was Nick Nolte not Jeff Bridges who gets tortured by Richard Masur in "Who'll Stop The Rain?"
All of this brings up a blogosphere question. Are there any right-wing sites who have legit lefties writing there? Not commenting, I mean, POSTING?
But, OK, I'll bite. I have no idea who Roberto Unger is and to be honest, I know less about Brazil than I do about the other countries down here just because of the language difference. I'm lazy and I'm not going to google but I'm going to guess he's an acolyte of Galbraith or Tobin.
What you are describing is a secular trend when really we're talking about business cycles. How much better does the Chamber Of Commerce want it? They got Taft-Hartley and they got Taylor. If not for AFSCME, the organized share of the American workforce would be well below 10%, maybe 8 and change. OK, that's still too much for the bosses? Fine. They still seek cheaper labor markets elsewhere and let's talk calculus here, in the limit as X approaches slavery, Y approaches revolution. Then, you're back to FDR and hoping that a more unionized workforce coincides with a rising business cycle. Even -- especially -- Deming saw the necessity of trade unions.
I use America as an example because I know it best but many of the emerging economies where labor is now cheap relative to the USA or EU have cultures of political awareness. Or all Western businesses can just say "fuck it" and ship all operations to China. That'll be fun. For a while. Until it's real, real ugly.
And then, of course, there's the "uniquely American" fantasists like Thomas Friedman and Benjamin Barber (and Barack Obama) and the Whole Foods dickhead who have this idea that unions are an anachronism and if labor and management just find "new ways" of thinking it'll all work out. The classic case is the Fremont, California, Toyota plant. Not only did the UAW have a strong foothold there but the business cycle was nearing it's nadir in the late 1980s and half the employees were blissed out on crack on the job. Toyota threatened to close down and the workers blinked and voted out the UAW, replacing shop stewards with "quality circles" and everything was hunky-dory for about two quarters until the "quality circles" took on more of the charcter of overseer/slave relations than college orientation lawn games. Crack use went from 1/2 the employees to 3/4 and it ended up with MANAGEMENT begging the UAW to come back. The business-cycle inflected upward and the re-unionized Toyota Freemont was a success again.
Guilds, unions, syndicates whatever you want to call them are a fact of business life so long as there exists, yes, the necessity for capital to expropriate some surplus value in a power setting. I write this, by the way, as a CAPITALIST not a COMMUNIST.
I don't think you'll get any arguments from too many people, least of all me, on the benefits of free-trade. Problems arise when governments like Bush's push it to the limit where trade is so unfair because all is subordinate to the warrior state abroad and the security state at home, tariffs, quotas and subsidies become essential defense.
If I were to be an economic fantasist instead of the profit-and-efficiency-maximizer-with-a-social-conscience that I am, I'd look for the ideal capital/labor balance to allow for not only free mobility of capital but a more organized labor pool with its own version of mobility involving, say, the portability of union membership.
Thankfully, my job is not to work something like that out but rather to beat the price of sporting events.
Meaty topic, Boner.
A. Such is the mindset of the lefty blogosphere that I, who consider myself very centrist and thought the piece I wrote was pretty moderate, is considered "right wing."
B. I notice that your critique of my post was more anecdotal, sentimental -- i.e "qualitative" -- than statistical or quantitative, and since you're a quant tells me the facts aren't with you or you can't find them. Olson is not just "a study" but to my knowledge the main attempt at finding statistical correlation between GDP growth and restraints on trade, including organized labor. The facts post-1982 still seem to bear him out, as I wrote -- compare US and Western Europe over the last 25 years -- although of course there will be outliers. The latest supply side story I know of is Georgia, which is growing double-digits with no resources to sell.
C. The majority of Americans working in manufacturing companies today are in sales, marketing and distribution. Their jobs are fairly safe because they can't be outsourced to a guy in Shenzhen who speaks only Chinese. And if they have survived every round of downsizing and are still needed, they have power to demand higher wages. That's the good news.
D. By the way, I like Lula a lot. He started with a tough hand and has done amazing things. Unger is a neo-Marxist who has gotten where he is in Brazil mainly because of his Harvard pedigree I bet.
E. My knowledge is an inch deep, so I need to keep my writing concise, to present a smaller target! That's why I like to blog!
The modern Union is two-tiered. Actually all the people on the original contracts are dead or retired.
I worked for AT%T network systems in 1989. The CWA negotiated a seperate contract for newhires.We would never make as much.
I hired myself out with what they they taught me. Voice/Data was big in the early nineties. Especially for rubes who did not know the and catdifference between Cat
The good deals are reserved for carpenters pipe fitters and electricians. Actually we really need them. everyone else can go to hell.
As far as economic performance since 82; I agree the rich got richer; the internet scam opened up venture capitalists purse the strings the same way climate change will.
I gotta go feed my kid.
G'sB:
You know me too well! Really a function of laziness as opposed to not really liking my side in this. I also love the Fremont case.
I think Thom Hartmann's website has the contra-studies as to union-membership and GDP. How good they are relative to normalizing for other factors, I can't say.
My more "literary" point (if you will) is that unions are a fact of commercial life, while memberhsip may ebb and flow. They're the bee's-knees when Walesa's the boss; they're the devil when it's Rivera or Toussaint in charge, a little of both with a Hoffa or Carey. I dig, Wingnut. I know that you're a liberal Democrat, but unfortunately you've been dragooned into being a token Fundie here! Sorry about that. But you hold up your end very well, I must say.
As I said, my knowledge of the macroeconomics of Brazil is much weaker than my knowledge of the rest of Latin America and it's probably because of my ability to speak and read Spanish and my inability to speak or read Portuguese or Yoruba. But in terms of ranking the countries in terms of how they're ordered economically, politically and socially, I'd go: Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Panama, Mexico, Venezuela, Uruguay, Ecuador and after that it's pick your poison.
I noticed that Venezuela's inflation hit 22% yesterday which means, if you can find some Bolivar instruments at 30%+, you might have a nice, albeit risky play if you finance by borrowing USD. I don't know if I quite have the stomach for that one right now, however. $100 oil is $100 oil is $100 oil and especially if you're a net seller, 1=22% no goooood.
Send me another post.
Dave:
You are indeed a renaissance man. Your kid's lucky to have you as a Dad.
Gary's Boner produced a couple of awesome boys. His older one may be more radical than any of us, and if I ever get back to the States, I'm going to have to teach him how to play No-Limit and Hollywood and how to price sporting events. He's got the right mind for it. I think Gary's Boner's already busting the kid's ass at Scrabble.
His younger boy can charm a dog off a meat wagon.
i work with unions
i dont have much nice to say about the unions i work with except they are nice people
when i have time i will expound
I note your point about Venezuela. Maybe it is a trade. I have a friend who specializes in exotic EM debt, I'll ask him. Last year you gave me a phenomenal idea on Icelandic bonds, where I made something like 20% total return. Venny may be equally good.
To Dave: yes, since 1982 the rich got richer. Everyone else got richer too, though the average family's purchasing power has stagnated for about the last 10 years I think -- it started under Clinton, not Bush. I think -- no, I'm sure -- the reason is not the decline of unions, it is globalization, and the decline of unions is a symptom not a cause. What you have to consider is how the marginal losses to Americans' quality of life have been balanced by broad-based gains to billions of other people in the "third world." Let's not be like King Canute here, let's try to figure out what we can fight for as a country that will enable us to stem the losses: just a couple of ideas -- more govt support for education, trade deals emphasizing protection for intellectual property, and less regulation especially by the FDA. Biotech is one industry where we can still beat the world.
I'm hemp with the bus trip, G's B, but we'll have to think of at least one title for the route roll.
How about "Fearthur"?
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