THE ALITO ADVERTISEMENT

And no this does not refer to the coming ads from both sides in the fight over the confirmation of Alito. It refers to a ploy in the game of Gin Rummy called "advertising." When one advertises he or she throws out a card whose equivalent in a different suit he or she needs. If the player throws out a 9c, his or her lazy opponent may think "we'll he doesn't need a 9...so I'll just toss out my 9h." And the "advertiser" scoops up the 9h making a 3 or 4 card run in upper-middle Hearts.

The Bush administration appears be advertising that they want a fight on this. The Democrats are going to take the bait and go for it. This is a huge mistake. In the best case scenario, Reid will be able to hold most of his caucus in the fold, and lock up Collins, Snowe, Jeffords, Chaffee, DeWine, McCain, Smith, Murkowski and maybe Hagel, allowing Lieberman and one Southern Democrat to vote aye, getting a 51-49 rejection. The chances of that happening are slim and none. And if it does happen, the administration just throws Luttig out there, who's as bad or worse than Alito. A straight up or down vote would probably show the Republican caucus minus Collins, Snow and Chaffee, and Jeffords (I) (that's 51 aye) plus these Democrats: Lieberman, Nelson, Nelson, Landrieu, Lincoln, Feingold, Salazar, Wyden, for a fairly uncomfortable 59-41 confirmation, leaving open the possibility of a filibuster. If they decide to do this, they have to be committed to fighting every procedural response to the death, and to repeat when Luttig and then the next ultra-conservative comes up. That would require a show of strength and unity that the party has thoroughly lacked to date, why should they make such a big gamble with the 2006 elections coming up and can fight those on the wars, lying, sleaze and "intelligent design."

The way you defeat a possible "advertisement" in gin is to WAIT. You'll be wanting to get rid of that 9h at some point, but you ought to wait for a signal that it's safe or a sense that you must hold it to block your opponent's heart-run possibilities. That's what the Democrats should do. Have everyone scream their lungs out, air their views, let the vote come 59-41, pass on the filibuster and confirm Alito.

They will have earned huge points with the mainstream media, probably a couple of Republican favors, used strong rhetoric that will resonate with the public and be able to get gin in 2008. Here's how. By forcing an early challenge to Roe and letting it go down 5-4 if Kennedy goes that way, or winning 5-4 if Kennedy votes to uphold. There's also the possibility that Roberts could contribute to a 6-3 win in support. And they fight different battles in the mid-terms.

But a loss isn't the end of the world; it's the beginning. Slowly but surely since the Reagan adminsitration, free access to abortion in the Red States has become theoretical. In practical terms, women there have all sorts of legal hurdles not to mention 500 mile bus rides. So, what's been lost really? What has been gained is a political hammer that will guarantee Democratic dominance at every level for a couple of generations and an end to the control that the folkways over a minority of the population have over all of us. Roe being overturned would really open Aunt Dora's Box (HEH-HEH) for the Republicans. It would be like a bomb going off and absolutely anything could happen including a nationwide tax protest. Mass exodus of the Upper Middle Class, responded to by seizure of passports and sealed borders. Nobody really knows exactly what, but everybody knows it would be a mess. Then you end up with a country somewhat like the Republic of Ireland in the near term which is not so bad, and restriction-less access to free abortion will probably come via legislative channels around 2009 or 2010, with President Edwards, Warner or Bayh signing it into law.

Or maybe everyone will come to their senses and realize that this fucking Alito is bad news from the clinic and vote no.

Very funny bit of satire by Peter Mehlman -- "Zuckerman Juiced" -- today on the Tissue Of Lies op-ed.

Kelso's Nuts love you.