Thanks to the "Hungry Mother" for pushing me in this direction. It was very helpful for me to look at the presidential races from this perspective. HM has lots of comments and links on the Nuts site but here's another just for good order's sake.
http://www.capemaybeach.net/randomthoughts.html
He raised the point that he thought Huckabee was scarier than Giuliani because Huckabee was legitimately religious. I disagree because I think that while Huckabee's views are scary, the man himself is a little too bright and too weak and doesn't have enough Machiavelli in him to cause massive problems the way Giuliani can. Nevertheless, for some reason I never look at politics this way, but a lot of people I respect do and it's a very useful prism, to be sure.
So, this is how I'd rank them in terms of FEAR FACTOR assuming that every candidate has an equal chance ("Inclusive Scenario") and assuming that only the candidates with an average score of 10% or greater of their party's electorate in the polls is viable ("Exclusive Scenario").
INCLUSIVE SCENARIO
1) McCain
2) Giuliani
3) Obama
4) Tancredo
5) Hunter
6) Huckabee
7) Thompson
8) Romney
9) Biden
10) Gravel
11) Paul
12) Edwards
13) Richardson
14) Dodd
15) Clinton
16) Kucinich
EXCLUSIVE SCENARIO
1) McCain
2) Giuliani
3) Obama
4) Huckabee
5) Thompson
6) Romney
7) Edwards
8) Clinton
In the "inclusive scenario" I drew no comfort, obviously, from the fact that Tancredo and Hunter have no chance. I also gave no consideration to the likelihood that the election of Kucinich or Paul might give rise to a very scary reaction; see A Very British Coup for details.
The conclusion I draw analyzing my own lists is that I put a lot of weight on three factors: personality, religion and intelligence. The big personalities either scare me a lot (McCain, Giuliani), comfort me a lot (Clinton) or confuse me a lot (Biden). Clinton's big personality is off-set by her more retrograde social and foreign policy views, leaving Kucinich ahead of her.
Religion alone is sufficiently bad to put Obama and Huckabee in the money inthe exclusive scenario, to lift Paul a little higher up than I had expected, to make Edwards my 3rd least preferred Democrat in the inclusive scenario and to make Kucinich my top pick (least scary) over Clinton in the same.
Brains were also a factor in my positioning of the top two and my placing Huckabee as less scary than Obama. He is, quite simply, a lot brighter than Obama is. Romney's intelligence was a big factor in his ending up a kissing-cousin to Biden. (The latter's weird personality had raised him to that status). In retrospect, probably the combination of big personalities and empty brain-pains give Walnuts n' Adolf the pole-positions. This reminds me of some graffitti I saw at language immersion school in Putney, VT, following my Junior year of HS: "Vote McGovern in '72/And Dick Nixon before he dicks you." It was 1978. I'm old but not quite that old.
This is mental masturbation, obviously, but if the voters don't want to think about it, the bloggers have to do the thinking. Better me than Andrew Sullivan. And, brothers and sisters, this is barely masturbation -- it's a blue fantasy at best -- I could write 10 pages on the positioning of any two candidates on the list. I'm sparing everybody.
Kelso's Nuts love you
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
12 comments:
Very interesting and thought-provoking, as usual. You don't make it easy to just read and respond from the hip. I'm going to put some thought into coming up with my own "scare factor" ranking. If I can do justice to it, I'll post it with a nod to you.
That's about the nicest compliment I've ever been paid. Thanks. Your shit is very strong I wouldn't worry about doing justice to this if I were you.
This is precisely the sort of thing that people who read blogs but dare not pick up the New York Times need Ser Kelso. If ever there was a classic quote among those in hell its "the Dead love a poll."
Maybe we here in hell could to the poll of whose supportes scare you the most I think Oprahbama trumps Rudypat. Am I the only professional who did not see Huckabee coming on so strong in Iowa? He's up by 22 percentage points in the freshest one out an hour ago. My own pride makes me thing Huckabee is cresting too soon and everyone who has money may catch him. And yes the caucus is just about a month away. A Huckabee win in Iowa gentlemen is far more devastating to the rest of the GOP field than a Obama win in Iowa to the Democrats. Clinton mops the floor with Obama on Super Tuesday no matter what washes out in New Hampshire.
Ser CE:
I always liked Huckabee. For a bet, I mean. I took the entry of Romney and Huckabee +$1.50 over Giuliani all others push in a challenge bet against an ex-business partner back in January. I thought I was on a free-roll because McCain was gin for the nomination! Shows you what a genius I am. I took a huge price like 250/1 for a ham sandwich on Mark Sanford in the early fall of 2006, so the Huckabee bet was a continuation of that vibe.
I think I'm going to be able to send it in air freight on La Clinton laying -$1.35 or so if she loses IA and NH. To show you how much of a tempest in a tea kettle this is, the prevailing price with Clinton is -$2.30.
Huckabee's interest in eliminating the IRS and instituting a national sales tax is a proposal too concrete and too goofy for a serious presidential candidate. He'll be gone soon.
this was great...
he man himself is a little too bright and too weak and doesn't have enough Machiavelli in him to cause massive problems the way Giuliani can.
totally true --- i would move Rudolph the Pinocchio-nosed Mayor to the top of the list, dropping McCain to second...followed by Hunter.
Ann Coulter LOVES Hunter so that alone ratches up his scary factor several points.
Rudy is truly one of the scariest people to ever even run for national office. His arrogance, his ego, his nastiness, his cruelty is just so deep --- it cannot be contained.
he has hidden it so well under the guise of America's mayor and the 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 hero/shit -- and there is nothing more stupid than an american falling for the john wayne role...
it would be real nice if Judy's dog (the one walked by the NYPD) is the final downfall of Il Mayor
N_S: Eliminating the IRS and instituting a national sales tax doesn't even have to be regressive if done correctly, i.e., using a compassionate level of excluded income from whatever flat tax is used on top of the sales tax or VAT, taking into account the demand-pull inflationary effects at the top level and the inflation "expectations" tacitly produced through the society. I would also insist on sharp cuts to defense, the national security state and militarized law enforcement. These are all things I like about Ron Paul, by the way. It is way too experimental, though. I agree. But I part company to the RIGHT with liberal orthodoxy on this issue, and parts of how I see it working are also far LEFT of liberal.
D-CAPny: You're preaching to the choir here. I hated Giuliani so much that I voted for Sharpton over Messinger in the Democratic primary because I thought she wasn't tough enough on Rudy. Clinton ought to show the police riot he instigated in 1993 in commercials.
kelso, as you know, eliiminating the IRS is a fantasy held by almost every US citizen. Despite its enemies and detractors, it will last as long as the republic. Thus, Huckabee is retailing ridiculous and impossible wish fulfillment to the voters he dreams of attracting.
His recently unearthed AIDS comments will cost him a few more votes. Even though he made his comments long ago, when knowledge of AIDS was limited, his comments had the ring of hysteria to them. He appeared as a person certain the sky was falling. Time has shown otherwise, proving his judgment is unsound. He's a kook.
amen, no_slappz. you've got huckabee's number down.
Hey, any liar in the Republican field can raise their hand when asked if they believe the Earth is really 6,000 years old. And all of them did (except... was it Paul?)
But it takes a really scary non-intellect to believe it, as I trust Huckabee does. I have a really hard time applying the adjective "bright" to that man.
Of course, you did say "...brighter than Obama..."
CR:
Huckabee hit that one out of the park. He made the very sensible point that the bible is allegory and any reference to specifics of time are to be treated as such. Thus, one CAN hold these absurb beliefs in a post-Galileo, Copernicus, Marx, Freud, Einstein world.
Huckabee's a brilliant con-man. He's all about small scams. Believes in god just enough to sell his game.
Post a Comment