AL EAST
- Rudy Gialiani's Girls
- Sawx
- Tampa Bay
- Toronto
- Baltimore
AL CENTRAL
- Cleveland
- Detroit
- White Sox
- Kansas City
- Minnesota
AL WEST
- Angels
- Oakland
- Seattle
- Texas
Wild Card: Detroit
Division Series: Rudy Giuliani's Girls over Detroit; Cleveland over Angels
Pennant: Rudy Giuliani's Girls over Cleveland
Possible surprises: Oakland, Tampa Bay
MVP: David Ortiz (DH), Boston
CY YOUNG: Jamie Shields, Tampa Bay
Rookie Of The Year: Daric Barton (1B), Oakland
NL EAST
- Mets
- Philadelphia
- Atlanta
- Florida
- Washington
NL CENTRAL
- Cubs
- Pittsburgh
- Milwaukee
- Houston
- St Louis
- Cinncinnati
NL WEST
- San Diego
- Arizona
- Dodgers
- Colorado
- San Francisco
Wild Card: Pittsburgh (also the "surprise")
Division Series: Mets over Pittsburgh. Cubs over San Diego
Pennant: Mets over Cubs
MVP: David Wright (3B), Mets
CY YOUNG: Johan Santana, Mets
Rookie Of The Year: Geovany Soto (C), Cubs
WORLD CHAMPION: THE NEW YORK METS IN STUNNING FASHION OVER RUDY GIULIANI'S GIRLS, PRESAGING A DEMOCRATIC WIN IN NOVEMBER
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
CONTEST
An overwhelmingly fawning blog-roll plus the endorsement of the politician of your choice for any office anywhere in the world by Kelso's Nuts for coming up with the words on the best needling placard of the opposition before the first of the NCAA Men's semi-finals. Two favorite real-life examples: the Cavalier fan who upon Sam Cassell's fouling-out held up the placard reading "SamIWas"; the Nacional (Colombia) fan who, upon red-card given to best striker on Once (11) De Caldas, held up the placard reading "Diez (10) De Caldas."
SPORTS POLITICA
Bowling alone. How long will AP show Obama bowling in Pennsylvania, exactly? If this is part of the cut into Clinton's base effort along with Casey endorsement, unless Obama and Rezko logged some serious time together on the lanes in the Slavic neighborhoods of Chicago, it's Dukakis-in-a-tank stupid. Pennsylvania has four sporting obsessions: Football, Baseball, Hunting and Bowling and I can't tell you which of the four is the most popular. A good recommendation for candidates looking for blue-collar votes in Pennsylvania: if you can't bowl, DON'T. If he can't make 160 -- at least -- with any consistency, just forget it. I never noticed how he did. If made 200 or better a couple of times and averaged around 170, he could TIE Clinton in PA. Otherwise, Clinton by 18.
Assuming that Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president, he's faced with a big problem. Election day is the first Tuesday in November and while Pennsylvania is key for him, Ohio is sine-qua-non. What's the most important outdoor sports day in PA and OH in the fall? If you said Ohio State versus Michigan you'd be wrong. It's the opening of deer season. Again, I have no idea whether Obama can hunt or not. For his (and the country and the worlds' sakes) I hope that Rezko had him out there a few times and that Obama's bagged at least one 8-pointer and is no stranger to the joys of venison. Somehow, Obama's result in Ohio would suggest otherwise.
There's going to be a lot of pressure on Obama, campaigning in Ohio and Pennsylvania against a guy like McCain, to go deer-hunting. I'd recommend he not do it for various reasons. He'll look like an idiot. It's probably not something he enjoys. And it will be a deal-breaker for a good portion of the piece of his present coaliation which he must sweep big-time in those states: college and post-graduate women. McKinney could get every one of those votes, which is cool, but I don't want McKinney to fuck up Obama's chances at beating McCain.
There is no doubt that the sports thing is going to be very important for Obama in those states against McCain. White male Democrats are crucial. If I were advising Obama on how to handle that without looking silly hunting or bowling, I'd look to focus on the Eagles, Steelers, Browns, Ohio State, Penn State and Pitt football associations if it's possible to make any. I think Axelrod is sharp enough to get that done. College football is especially important because McCain has such a weird obsession with college sports. On the one hand, he has a virgin-whore thing about the gambling. He can't stay away from it but he feels so guilty that he proposes ever more punative measures with regard to fans' gambling. And he's over the top about college athletes and education, even though he himself scraped by Annapolis by the skin of his teeth. If Obama were to get some high-profile coach's endorsement (forget Paterno; he's as nutty as McCain is), it would drive McCain even more loco.
[nb: I'm neutral on hunting. I've been twice in my life and didn't enjoy it. I have no real problem with deer-hunting because generally speaking hunters clean, cure and eat the venison. Similarly, fowling if you eat the kill doesn't really bug me. Sport-hunting for drugged prey a la Dick Cheney is worse to me than dog-fighting, cock-fighting or hare-coursing is, none of the latter I mind at all. That's my point of view, however, and I'm really not in the mood to argue it. I felt like offering it, however. I will not respond to any comments about my view of blood-sport. FYI.]
Even if Obama stays away from the deer-hunting, which I think he should, there's a way to out-macho and out-White and out-Slavic and McCain in the sporting realm and make McCain more crazy than you've ever seen him. If Axelrod can pull this off, he can win Obama the election.
Yes, I'm talking about a photo shoot with the pride of Youngstown, Ohio. Today's finest pound-for-pound fighter, the best Middleweight and likely the best Super-Middleweight in the world, Kelly Robert "The Ghost" Pavlik. McCain despises boxing. Probably for the same reason he hates/loves college sports. If Obama gets that image of him with Pavlik buried deeply into the consciousness of Western NY, PA, OH, and WVA, the race for president is OVER and Obama wins.
Kelly Pavlik is so much more important to Barack Obama's chances than Pat Leahy's whining is that it's a fucking joke. If I'm David Axelrod, I'm letting the rest of the team handle the Pennsylvania effort -- it's good practice and it's a lost cause anyway -- and focus on establishing a relationship with the Pavlik camp not for an endorsement of Obama versus Clinton, but for an endorsement down the road of Obama versus McCain.
[nb: I like boxing very much. Again, I won't respond to any comments critical of my likes or dislikes. I will be happy as always to respond to any opinions I've offered that don't have to do with me. Agree, disagree or whatever. But don't make judgements based upon how I label myself. Baseball, football, bowling, hunting, boxing...alone or with regard to the politics...If you have opinions, please offer them but don't try to psychoanalyze me.]
I was never the world's biggest fan of the last White hero of Youngstown, Ray "Boom-Boom" Mancini, in fact I always liked Bramble's win not just because of the money, but because Bramble was a troubled soul (being one myself, I indentify with them) and the press was just cruel about it: "Bramble hits like a woman...arrogant...druggie..." and so on. But this is the vibe Obama needs to tap into to make this Pavlik shit happen and win himself PA and OH versus McCrazy
This would drive McCain absolutely beyond loco. I'd say that it would drive McCain so batshit that if there were a debate sometime soon after, McCain would self-combust like that guy in the movie Scanners. He'll say something crazy. There's no telling what McCain would do. I could see him advocating nuclear war. I could see him hurling a REAL racial epithet at Obama, none of this pretend Lyndon Johnson v MLK, Jr., Civil Rights Act bullshit, which was merely an effective canard anyway. The day that Bill Clinton is a racist is the day dogs and cats can produce off-spring.
I mean McCain will be nasty, and on TV, in front of the world. And that plays into Obama's greatest strength -- his public calm.
Kelso's Nut's love you
29 comments:
In the "Alabama" part of PA, hunting is supreme. My wife taught in a small school district (499 out of 500) which gave 2 holidays for buck season and a holiday for doe season to boot. In the Philly suburbs, hunting is only important to the imports from the sticks. I don't know about the Pittsburgh area, but "Deer Hunter" seems to indicate that hunting is important over in the ignorant part of the state (sorry, I'm a Penn State man from a Penn State family).
5:37PM Update. Mets 6, Marlins 0, Bot 4. Santana is perfect.
5:44 PM - Update. Mets 6, Marlins 2. Santana gives up 2-run HR to Josh Willingham. Will a Mets pitcher ever throw a no-hitter?
Oliver Perez is the only one of this bunch who could, but it would be an ugly one with about 4 walks.
The only hole, btw, in Johan Santana's game is that as precise as he is, he's always up in the zone with his stuff and tends to give up the long ball. Willighan could just as easily been chasing high strikes.
HM: Thanks for your evidence in support of my hypothesis!
Center-City and South Philly is a lock for the Democrat no matter what. The suburbs will be a mix. You have hunters in places like Cornwells Heights and Bensalem. You have no Republicans in Cheltenham or Germantown. The Paoli vote (think liberal WASP of the Dean-John Lindsay-Ned Lamont style) will lean slightly Democratic except for those who buy that McCain is a "moderate, country-club Republican," which he is not.
Obama will be very strong in the areas near Cherry Hill and Camden, NJ of course and also in the areas close to Delaware because of his backing from the financial sector. You can't find a Democrat with a search party anywhere near Lancaster. And no where in the areas surrounding Pittburgh where the Mellon family can throw money around.
Scranton-Wilkes Barre area will be interesting. The parts near Saddlewood, NJ will vote like Paoli. The poorer parts are up for grabs and that hunting vote is crucial.
Of course, everything between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh requires Obama approach the way I suggest. Same with Erie County even though it's one of the more urban parts of the state.
PA is a fascinating state demographically. It has everything -- including a Latin vote hear Philly and in the SWB outskirts, which itself is divided between Democratic Puerto-Ricans near Philly and Republican Cubans by Jersey to the North.
Money is concentrated in organized labor which is still highly Slavic and European, and can go either way.
Also, in Mellon's, but not newly-yuppie, Pittsburgh, fancy S-WB and Paoli for Republicans.
And inner-cities and Jewish Philly finance communities for Democrats. Susquehanna Fund, for example, may handle billions but I doubt a Republican is even allowed to work there!
PA is a fun state to study demographically because even with the decline in the steel industry, social changes have been slow.
Final - Mets 7, Marlins 2. Santana goes 7. Wright 2-4, 3RBI.
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I am honored to wander your blog. Thousands of points can invite you to my blog to be exchanges. Thanks
I am honored to wander your blog. Thousands of points can invite you to my blog to be exchanges. Thanks
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I am honored to wander your blog. Thousands of points can invite you to my blog to be exchanges. Thanks
I am honored to wander your blog. Thousands of points can invite you to my blog to be exchanges. Thanks
I am honored to wander your blog. Thousands of points can invite you to my blog to be exchanges. Thanks
You write very well..
I am honored to wander your blog. Thousands of points can invite you to my blog to be exchanges. Thanks
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
Thank you, that was extremely valuable.
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
Keep the faith, my Internet friend. You are a first-class writer and deserve to be heard.
Keep the faith, my Internet friend. You are a first-class writer and deserve to be heard.
Keep the faith, my Internet friend. You are a first-class writer and deserve to be heard.
Keep the faith, my Internet friend. You are a first-class writer and deserve to be heard.
Keep the faith, my Internet friend. You are a first-class writer and deserve to be heard.
Keep the faith, my Internet friend.
Keep the faith, my Internet friend. You are a first-class writer and deserve to be heard.
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