A pretty competitive round of 16 from the looks of it. A lot of glamour is left and one "story," Davidson. The "story" could continue although it's not likely to. Generally speaking, Wisconsin is favored by 4 1-2 and you have to pay a little extra (-$1.10) for the privilege of laying it. To be expected, I made Wisconsin -6.
UCLA and Kansas have the easiest draws in Western Kentucky and Villanova, respectively. UCLA -11 1/2 and Kansas -12 are right on the button.
Memphis gets Michigan State and is favored by 4 1-2 -$1.09. My read is insignificantly different. I make Memphis -3 1-2 flat. That is an upset possibility but not a compelling one. I'd rather see Memphis win.
More or less a dice roll with LOU v TU, WVU v XU, STANFORD v UT.
The interesting game for me is Washington State v North Carolina. I make it NC -2 1/2 but can take +8 1/2 with WSU, which I've done in small size because this isn't really my specialty. So, my opinion is not worth that much.
Guessing on a bracket of 8 going forward, I'd make it: Washington State v Tennessee, Kansas v Wisconsin, Memphis v Texas, and UCLA v Xavier.
For 4, I suppose: Washington State (the reality is NC of course!) v Kansas, Memphis v UCLA.
For 2, Kansas v "it's-a-coinflip-and-i-don't-want-to-jinx-UCLA"
For the title: Kansas, though I'm not happy about it.
Or maybe something really freaky happens like Washington State or Davidson win it. How funny would that be?
I'll review the Women's NCAA tomorrow.
Kelso's Nuts love you
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
22 comments:
I have no idea how to bet on a game. You could teach a woman a lot! You make this all sound so very interesting!
Really? When it's done properly it should be very boring. Lots of math.
What's good about it is that if you're any good at it, you can make a nice living anywhere in a recession-proof world that doesn't ask much of you other than that you put up your money.
Like with everything else, you need self-confidence without hubris and you need to take the excitement factor out of it because most of it comes out in the wash anyway and you're playing to wash through as much cash as you can with an edge of between 2 cents and 6 cents on the dollar.
Basketball and football are not my bread-and-butter because the markets are too well-picked over. Believe me, I have 10 times as much going on women's golf this weekend as I did on Washington State.
I hope that you're as wrong about Villanova as about Carolina. We'll see tonight.
I remember wearing my Villanova blazer into the classroom on Finals Monday back in 1985 and having all of my students laugh at me. On Wednesday, when I again wore the blazer, no chuckles were forthcoming.
OK, there's some sort of virtual pub experience brewing here. You're a Villanova man. I'm UCLA. Torrance Stephens is Memphis. I assume Fairlane is Louisville. Tommy-Gun could well be a Xavier fan.
There have to be one or two UCONN or Rutgers women's fans around. Rutgers women's hoops is my only "hometown" team left, so I'm rooting for them with no hope.
My trust fund runs out in about 10-12 years I will need a new avocation! Teach me! I think I would be really good at this. Think about it. Take me on as a student...apprentice (smile)
Not a bad thought, actually. I have no idea whether my son will wan to do this. I'd kind of prefer he forge his own path in life. My partner and I have been a two-man band for 20 years. He's 55 and I'm 46.
Before UIGEA (which I'm sorry to have to break to you...Obama supports), the off-shore sports market was super-live and has been cut subsequently by 75%. Until that happened we were looking to take on another partner. We interviewed a couple of people but either found them unpleasant to deal with or untrustworthy.
Right now, we've been dealing with shallow markets and all sorts of administrative problems but this is what I do so I do it.
I've never heard of anyone coming into this as an adult before. Most of us begin as pre-adolescents. It requires tremendous math ability, a bankroll, a huge enough ego to believe you're right and everyone else is wrong, yet to be modest enough to be willing to re-examine all assumption, a tolerance for tedium, a cast-iron stomach for losses, and no addiction to the rush of betting. You have to win like you're used to it and lose like you like it.
Drug and/or alcohol addiction will not mess up your work. Gambling addiction will destroy it. It hsa to be a job. Oh, and the job is 24/7. If you don't work, you don't eat.
There are days I so don't feel like doing it but a sense of obligation to my partner drives me.
Oh, and another thing. Start doing this for a couple of years and you can lose your soul in a way. Once you've experienced what this is like, you won't look at the world the same again. People will seem very, very square to you.
I'm not joking about this. Take anybody you think is really wise by scholarship or street-wise and because so few people can do this work successfully year after year, that paragon of "hip" will seem as lame as can be. And then your moorings from society become loosened. It all becomes about "getting the best of it."
Once you've been in this for a few years people you once admired won't seem that admirable anymore because even it they're brain surgeons or union organizers or belong to MENSA they can't do what you can do.
Some people don't care about karma and will take advantage of any edge in any situation and really stick the knife in. Other people make sure to have an outside life and try to maintain some balance but that's hard because only people doing THIS understand THIS.
But sometime down the road we can discuss this. It's my belief that women make better quantitative sports-bettors, card-players, investors, hustlers, etc., because they come into it with fewer pre-conceived notions,yet so many are turned off by the crudeness and banality of it and the extremely bottom-line analytical focus of it.
Hobbies are really important and so are outside friends and interests but not so much than you can't work obsessively.
If it doens't sound like a lot of fun, you're right. It isnt.
And for all your troubles, one day your turn on C-SPAN and hear every major Republican describing your work in betting as some how "traitorous," and that's a mind-fuck that's really hard to accept.
Per my first post asking about learning this profession--OK so that would be a NO! (smile)
I appreciate the down to earth talk for my romantic-ass self!
LOVEBABZ: I didn't say "no"! I told you some of the less pleasant aspects of being a WINNING player. There are virtues to it as well. Because your conventions ipso facto have to go out the window, you have a lot of freedom from many of the social strictures which bind.
You interact with a broader range of people than you would in the 9-5world, and along with notions of apartness from society you gain access to a smaller but way more diverse community of people. It's a meritocracy pure and simple. You lose all sense of what the people you deal with "are" and classify them by what they're good at. The best quantitative analyst in the world is a Greek-American. The best NBA handicapper is a Redneck. The best overall poker player and proposition-hustler is an African-American. The best intinerant cash Omaha player is an Anglo-Hindu. The best return-on-investment card player is a small, vegan woman from Southern California. The best handicapper of NFL halftimes is a 60s hippie type Jewish guy with the long hair and turquoise rings. But it's hard for me to think of these people that way, because for better or worse, it's all about how many pennies in the dollar you can make. All preconceptions COST you money.
You acquire a tougher, but much more just boss -- YOURSELF.
And the challenge of the work is highly intellectual as well, so if you survive you gain great intrinsic satisfaction.
But "romantic"? I wouldn't say there's a lot of what you imagine from the movies in it. What line of work ever is like that?
SPARTACUS: Thank you. I was pleased with myself for that turn of phrase.
Are pleased to come to your blog to read your article! Thank you for sharing!
Are pleased to come to your blog to read your article! Thank you for sharing!
Are pleased to come to your blog to read your article! Thank you for sharing!
Are pleased to come to your blog to read your article! Thank you for sharing!
I would like to invite you to visit my blog.
Are pleased to come to your blog to read your article! Thank you for sharing!
Are pleased to come to your blog to read your article! Thank you for sharing!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
Thank you, that was extremely valuable.
hooray, your writings on theater and writing much missed!
Post a Comment